When it comes to economic forecasting, sometimes even the most educated minds can fail, and experts can prove that they are no better than the average person, writes the Foundation for Economic Education.

Uncertainty makes you uncomfortable. This is why we sometimes rely on expert predictions to make our own decisions. Unfortunately, history has shown that even great experts are often no better than ordinary people when it comes to predicting the future. Here are five economic predictions that never came true.

1. Irving Fisher predicted a huge stock boom even before the stock crash of 1929

Irving Fisher was one of the outstanding economists of the first half of the 20th century. His contribution to economic science is diverse: the connection between inflation and interest rates, the use of price indices or reformulation of the quantitative theory of money are just some of them. However, he is sometimes remembered only in connection with the failed statement he made in the days before the crash of 1929. Fisher said that “stock quotes have reached what appears to be a plateau (…) I expect to see the stock market crash in a few days with devastating consequences. (Quotation by Irving Fisher appeared in the New York Times, October 16, 1929, p. 8. Fisher made his comment while speaking at a luncheon of the Builders Exchange Club of the Purchasing Agents Association. At the time, Fisher was one of America’s best-known and most-quoted economists )

2. Paul Ehrlich on the “demographic bomb”

In 1968, biologist Paul Ehrlich published a book in which he argued that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in the coming decades as a result of overpopulation on the planet. He went so far as to say that “the battle to feed all mankind is lost and nothing can prevent the world’s death rate from greatly increasing.”

Of course, Ehrlich’s predictions never came true. Since the book was published, the death rate has fallen from 12.44 in 1968 to 7.65 in 2016, and the poverty rate has decreased, even though the population has doubled since 1950. Rarely in history has anyone been so wrong about the future of humanity.

3. The Great Depression of the 1990s, which never came

Economist Ravi Batra topped The New York Times bestseller list in 1987 with his book, The Great Depression of 1990. From the title, you can easily understand what the idea of ​​the book was: an economic crisis is inevitable, and it will be very difficult. Fortunately, his prediction did not come true. d

in fact, the 1990s were even a period of relative stability and economic growth, with the US stock market rising by 18%.

4. Alan Greenspan on interest rates

In September 2007, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan published his memoirs, The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World.

In the book, he argued that the economy was headed for double-digit interest rates due to inflationary pressures.

According to Greenspan, the Fed will raise interest rates sharply to meet its mandate of maintaining 2% inflation.

Only a year later, the Fed’s interest rates fell to historic lows, and a few months later they even dropped to zero.

5. Peter Schiff and the end of the world

Financial columnist Peter Schiff became famous after the financial crisis of 2007-2008 for predicting the housing crisis of 2006 (even a broken clock turns itself back twice a day).

Since then, he has been predicting economic disasters on a daily basis with very limited success. There are many examples of failed predictions.

For example, in a 2010 video (see below), Schiff predicted that quantitative easing (the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy between 2008 and 2014) would lead to hyperinflation and a significant devaluation of the dollar. Unfortunately for Schiff, the average annual inflation rate since QE began has been 1.68%, just below the Fed’s 2% target.