With the imposition of successive restrictions of the Western world on Russiaother countries appear that will dominate the world market liquefied natural gas (LNG) with the first and most important USA And Qatar. The share of Russia, on the contrary, will decrease significantly.

S&P estimates that by 2030, global LNG production capacity will increase by 50% to 671 million tons per year. But as Zie Chong, S&P’s director of natural gas for South and Southeast Asia, points out, the US will account for 25% of that capacity and Qatar’s for 19%. Russia’s share, on the other hand, will fall to 5% from the current 6.7%. In the first half of last year, the superpower displaced Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest LNG exporter, according to the Energy Information Administration. As Henning Glostein, head of energy, climate and natural resources at the consultancy Eurasia Group, points out, however, the US and Qatar will mostly benefit the most as Russia is isolated from the global LNG trade. system. He emphasizes that since Europe turned to the LNG market, “new plans and projects to expand existing capacities both in the US and in Qatar’s vast northern field have accelerated.”

A window of opportunity for Greece, Italy and Croatia to take advantage of as their geographic location makes it easier for them to replace Russian natural gas.

In addition to the US and Qatar, the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean are likely to benefit, according to Henning, as their geographic location makes it easier for them to replace Russian natural gas transported through pipelines to the countries of the European South and, in particular, Italy, Greece and Croatia. He estimates that Russia’s role will decline over the course of a decade, but he notes that it had already begun to degrade even before it invaded Ukraine early last year. Similarly, S&P’s Chong emphasizes that “in the coming decade, Russia will face extremely great difficulties in its attempts to expand its capabilities in the natural gas liquefaction sector because of the sanctions imposed on it.”

According to him, the total production capacity of Russian LNG plants will remain unchanged at 37 million tons in the coming years. In 2021, before it invaded Ukraine, Russia was the world’s top exporter of natural gas, as well as the fourth largest LNG exporter after Australia, Qatar and the US.

However, with regard to the countries of Southern Europe that could be promoted on the map of international gas trade, analysts note that the “window of opportunity is relatively narrow” as Europe plans to limit overall gas consumption. relatively polluting fuels and investment in alternative energy sources. Immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU presented the REPowerEU plan, which provides for an increase of up to 45% in the share of renewable energy sources in the consumption of energy resources. This ambitious goal sets the time horizon for the end of the decade.