It is now fully fixed in the minds of European public opinion that the shock of a new war in Europe was also a catalytic factor that led to radical changes in the world energy map.

By exacerbating the energy crisis and sending oil and gas prices into the stratosphere, the war in Ukraine has upended trade relations between economies around the world.

It alienated Europe from its energy-rich neighbor and became its energy supplier for decades and turned it into the best consumer of the US and, in particular, the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry.

For all the talk of US gains from the war, the fact is that other economies have far more quietly benefited from equally colossal financial gains from the Ukrainian drama and the plight of low-income Europeans.

From prosperous Scandinavia to the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf, energy-exporting countries have replaced once-cheap Russian hydrocarbons with their own energy resources and have benefited the most from soaring energy prices.

So while most European industries were on their knees due to the unbearable cost of energy, and European economies were suffering overall, already wealthy Norway saw a sharp increase in the unaccounted capital of its state wealth fund of 1.3 trillion. dollar

Norway’s income from oil and natural gas exports will jump to $1.38 trillion this year, according to the Norwegian Ministry of Economics. Norwegian kroner, an amount corresponding to 131 billion dollars, when respectively last year they were 118 billion dollars, and in 2021 it was only 29 billion dollars.

Norway’s oil and gas export revenue will rise to $131 billion this year, up from $29 billion in 2021.

Over the past year, Norway has replaced Russia as the main supplier of natural gas to Europe.

However, due to the rapid growth of its oil revenues, which go into the sovereign wealth fund, the government is expected to cover 20% of its budget for them, even if it is entitled to a very limited portion of the wealth. from the sovereign wealth fund.

The almost scandalous growth of the country’s welfare has become the subject of disagreement between the authorities and the opposition.

Opposition politicians are joining economists and leaders of the country’s industrial giants in describing the government as militant and urging it to funnel at least some of the disputed proceeds into a new international solidarity fund.

And at the same time, equally prosperous Sweden is among the largest energy exporters in Europe and by some measures was first among them last year in terms of what this means for its revenues.

Sweden exported 33 terawatt-hours to other countries last year, according to data from the European transmission network Entso-E, analyzed by Rystad Energy AS.

Golden gas contracts for Algeria, Qatar, Egypt

Perhaps underestimated is the extent to which the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and North Africa indirectly benefited from the war and the energy crisis.

However, it is clear that among the winners of this war are the three Arab countries that offered Europe an exit as alternative suppliers of natural gas when it decided to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine: Algeria, Qatar and Egypt.

The Algerian state company Sonatrach quickly took advantage of the situation and renewed contracts with three major European energy companies: Italy’s Eni, France’s Total and Spain’s Naturgy. Thus, its revenues from natural gas exports increased by 4-5 billion euros.

With regard to Spanish Naturgy in particular, Algeria, which exports about 83% of its gas to Europe, mainly to Italy and Spain, used, at least in part, as an excuse the fact that the Spanish prime minister had reached an agreement with Morocco. in the dispute over the status of Western Sahara and introduced higher prices for Spain.

Qatar, which has the third largest natural gas reserves in the world after Russia and Iran, increased LNG exports by 16% in the first nine months of 2022. However, before the negative publicity, his relations with Europe improved after the visits of Charles Michel and Robert Habek to Doha.

As part of his visit, the German Economy Minister signed an agreement with Qatar undertaking to supply Germany with two million tons of gas per year for a period of 15 years.

After all, Qatar’s exports doubled over the summer to $9.2 billion in August. The leadership of the small Persian Gulf country plans to increase LNG exports from 77 million tons last year to 126 million tons in the next decade.

Egypt doesn’t have large reserves of natural gas, but that hasn’t stopped it from doubling its energy revenues.

The volume of its exports increased by 171% compared to 2021, and Cairo made a profit of 5 billion euros in 2022. At the same time, he stepped up natural gas production and exploitation activities in the Eastern Mediterranean in cooperation with foreign companies.

Toward the end of the year, he announced the discovery of a large amount of natural gas at the well-known Shor field, and after a visit by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, agreed to increase gas exports to Europe.

US leads in LNG exports and astronomical oil revenues

Whatever other countries benefit from the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, the United States, the oil superpower, and, above all, the US LNG industry, remain the undisputed winner.

The unimaginable profits of more than $200 billion that US oil companies have raked in thanks to the oil price hike and the high prices at which US industry has sold LNG to Europe have caused great discomfort in European countries. public opinion, but also in the political circles of the Old Continent.

Increasing the role of the superpower in meeting the energy needs of Europe, since it is now its main supplier of fuel, has also been problematic.

Before the war, when Russia supplied Europe with about 55% of its natural gas needs, the US share of European LNG imports was only 28%. During the war, the share of the superpower rose to 45%, while supplies from Russia decreased by at least 75%.

Thus, the US is now the world’s leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as it exported 81.2 million tons of fuel last year, as did Qatar. This is literally a leap forward for a superpower that only started exporting LNG in 2016 and has grown overnight into the dominant force in the industry.

The US shale revolution and multibillion-dollar investments in natural gas liquefaction facilities have helped transform the US from an LNG importer to a major fuel supplier.

This image of a superpower making astronomical profits from the energy crisis and the suffering it entails for its economy and society has led politicians in France and Germany to criticize Washington directly.

A few months ago, French Finance Minister Brinot Le Maire called US LNG exports “unacceptable” to the US, charging Europe four times the price US companies pay in the US market.

This was preceded by statements by German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who accused American industry of inflating natural gas prices, while Europe is struggling to become energy independent from Russia, and German industry is approaching a reduction or even a halt in production. to low energy costs. For their part, of course, American industrialists argue that they are not responsible for expensive LNG.

In fact, most of the fuel trade is in European hands, according to Cheniere, the largest US LNG exporter. Corey Grindal, senior marketing manager at Cheniere Energy, recently stated that 90% of the fuel his company produces is sold to third parties, and most of its customers are European utilities such as Enel, Endesa, Naturgy and Engie. 70% of the LNG exported by Cheniere this year was sold in Europe.

Side effect

Norwegian Foreign Minister Evid van Pettersson, when asked about the allegations against Norway that it somehow fuels the war, as it makes a dizzying profit from the war, Norwegian Foreign Minister Evid van Pettersson replied that “this is an indirect side effect”, rejecting this characterization and adding that “we have an understanding of the responsibility associated with our natural resources”.

Test

Commenting on Sweden’s transformation into an energy exporting country and even the first in Europe, Fabian Rönningen, energy analyst at Rystad, emphasized that “2022 has been a test for many countries to adapt to reality, since all these hypothetical scenarios invented by people on the possibility of blackouts” .

Update

Referring to Algeria’s improved energy relations with the EU. as a result of the war, Geopolitical Intelligence Service energy expert Federica Saini Fazanotti indicated that “the country has limited production capacity and urgently needs investment and improvements in its infrastructure to operate and develop its energy sector.”