In weekly reviews of military events in Ukraine by British intelligence agencies, the tone is usually set by references to his successes Kyiv and hits received Russian troops.

However, in yesterday’s review there was bad news for the defenders of a particularly bloody battle of Bahamutin eastern Ukraine, where the military efforts of both sides have been concentrated for eight months.

“Russia has made additional gains and has probably already penetrated the city center while simultaneously occupying the western bank of the Bakhmut River,” the corresponding message says. In fact, British intelligence warns that “the main supply route for Ukrainian troops, Corridor 0506 west of Bakhmut, is under immediate and very serious threat”, meaning that most of the most combat-ready Ukrainian forces are in danger of being surrounded by attackers.

Last month, Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the defense of Bakhmut to continue despite the heavy cost, believing that if the beleaguered city fell, it would be easier for the Russian army to advance on the two main urban centers still controlled by the Kiev government in the country’s east. Donetsk province, the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

But on Wednesday, the Ukrainian president hinted that he would order a retreat if his troops defending the city faced an imminent threat of encirclement. However, yesterday, a representative of the Eastern Command of the Ukrainian army, Sergei Tserevaty, said that “the situation in Bakhmut is difficult,” but “the enemy has not achieved strategic success.”

The Russian cordon is also tightening around Avdovka, a city located south of Bakhmut and not far from Donetsk, the capital of the region of the same name, which has been in the hands of Russian-speaking separatists since 2014. For their part, the Ukrainians bombed Russian-controlled cities on the southern front, especially Melitopol, the largest Russian-controlled city in the Zaporozhye region.

The Russian army is close to capturing the city, British intelligence agencies have calculated – Ankara fears an escalation of the war in the coming weeks.

The actions of the Ukrainian artillery are considered a harbinger of the long-awaited Ukrainian counterattack in the south, and possibly on the eastern front. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, has calculated that the New York Times leak of classified documents about U.S. aid to the Ukrainian army is serving a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at hampering a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, expressed his government’s fears about the escalation of the war in the spring. For his part, the head of Russian diplomacy, answering a question about the possibility of his meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, said that Russia had never been negative about any “serious proposal” for dialogue.

Chinese position

The Ukrainian was at the center of French President Emmanuel Macron’s three-day visit to China, which ended yesterday, and his consultations with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Asked if he feared that France and, more broadly, the EU could convince the Chinese leader to change its stance on Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied: “China is a very serious, very big power with its dominant position. This is not a country that quickly changes its position under pressure from outside.”