Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe Russia has reached an impasse in Bakhmut, with “several indicators supporting the assessment that Russian forces around Bakhmut have reached their peak.” Recently, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that the city of Donetsk region is the hottest spot on the entire front line.
Several indicators support ISW’s assessment that Russian forces around Bakhmut are stagnating.
Ukrainian high-ranking officials freely visit advanced positions in Bakhmut. The head of the Military Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (MID) Kyrylo Budanov visited Bakhmut on December 27-28 and was geolocated at least 600 meters from the previously recorded front line of Russian troops.
Budanov’s visit confirms previous reports in Ukrainian social networks that on December 21, Ukrainian troops conducted a tactical counterattack that pushed back Russian forces on the approaches to Bakhmut. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Bakhmut on December 20.
Earlier this week, Bulgarian journalist Kristo Grozev of the investigative website Bellingcat released a video of members of the Wagner PMC mercenary group telling the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, that he was up to no good, calling him a “bastard,” the fighters infuriating that they lack artillery shells.
The Russians can still attack, but ineffectively
According to ISW, US Military Doctrine defines a tipping point as “the point at which a force is no longer able to continue its operations, offensive or defensive,” and “when a force cannot continue to attack, it must adopt a defensive posture or execute an operational hiatus.
If the Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed exhausted their capabilities, they may, however, continue their aggressive offensive. Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective attacks on Bakhmut, although these attacks are unlikely to yield significant operational gains.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that “only a few” civilians remained in the front-line city in eastern Donetsk region. In a Telegram post, the head of Ukraine said about the city that “there is no place that is not covered with blood.”
The head of Ukraine’s special services, Kyrylo Budanov, made a similar statement to the Institute for the Study of War regarding Bakhmut, according to which “Russian troops are at a dead end,” but extended this claim to the entire country. Guardian.
He said that Russia is at an impasse, but Ukraine, waiting for weapons, “cannot defeat it comprehensively in all directions.”
(sources news.ro, ISW, The Guardian)
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Source: Hot News
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