Russian forces will continue to focus on capturing the city of Bakhmut and as much territory as possible in the Donetsk region to ensure the possibility of holding referendums announced in the fall, according to an assessment published overnight from Saturday to Sunday by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

A sinkhole in Donetsk after a rocket attackPhoto: Anatoly Stepanov / AFP / Profimedia

Information from the latest ISW assessment of the war in Ukraine:

  • Vladimir Putin’s armed forces are likely to prefer offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut and around Donetsk to attempts to capture Siversk and Slovyansk.
  • The Russian command is probably trying to use the recent territorial gains in the Novoluhansky area to put pressure on Bakhmut from the east.
  • The Russians probably aim to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range in the city of Donetsk.
  • It is also possible that these actions are aimed at gaining as many positions as possible in the Donetsk region before the referendums scheduled for September.
  • Russian offensive operations are unlikely to capture Bakhmut, which is large and well-defended, or make significant gains west of Donetsk, even if they succeed in capturing the cities of Avdiivka and Pisky, which have been under pressure since the start of the Russian war. invasion of 2014.
  • However, fighting in these areas is likely to intensify, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is asking residents to evacuate.
  • Neither Russia nor Ukraine has provided new evidence regarding the cause or responsibility for the death of Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Olenivska colony in the occupied Donetsk region.
  • Russian officials found 50 bodies and published a list of dead prisoners of war.
  • Ukrainian officials said they could not verify the list at this time and called for an international investigation.
  • Maxar provided images of the damage after the impact.

ISW says it cannot confirm the nature or cause of the incident at Olenivka prison, although it is highly likely that Russian forces were responsible.

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