Less than 24 hours: this is how long it should remain in Taiwan speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.

The 82-year-old man arrived at the self-governing island in the Pacific on Tuesday evening (local time) from Malaysia and is expected to leave on Wednesday afternoon.

Despite its brevity, her visit has already put much of Asia on “border alert.” What could happen out there, against the backdrop of the Taiwan Strait, in the next few hours while Pelosi is in Taipei? This is an issue that now dominates the international level.as everyone is watching two superpowers like United States and China participate in a show of force, the United States sends a congressional delegation to Taiwan, and China “responds” with military gymnasiums.

“Between Autocracy and Democracy”

Democratic Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan’s parliament on Wednesday and meet with the president of the self-governing region. Tsai Ying Wendefended her choice to visit Taiwan, arguing that “the world today is called to choose between autocracy and democracy” and that the US supports a democratic Taiwan by demonstrating “solidarity” where “today is more important than ever“.

Of course, it is worth noting that Washington has not officially recognized Taiwan as an independent state, while White House (Joe Biden, Jake Sullivan) made sure to separate his position by distancing himself from Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. It should be noted that prominent American columnists such as Thomas Friedman of The New York Times disapproved of the said visit in a particularly blunt manner.

Contrary to criticism, Nancy Pelosi finally landed in Taiwan on Tuesday night, making history as the first Speaker of the US House of Representatives to visit the island in 25 years. The previous visit there was made in 1997 by Republican Newt Gingrich. Much has changed since then, however, including China itself, which has grown in size in the meantime and is now moving much more dynamically on the international stage.

Within such a framework increased geopolitical rivalrythe reaction of Beijing, which now accuses the Americans of setting the stage for de jure independence of Taiwan and overthrowing the “one-China policy”, on the basis of which Washington today officially recognizes only the People’s Republic of China as a state.

In an op-ed published today in the Washington Post, Pelosi herself argues that her visit to Taiwan “does not in any way conflict with the longstanding one-China policy.” However, in Beijing, the point of view is different.

Beijing in “counterattack”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry hastened in a statement issued immediately after Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan to condemn the visit of the American politician, arguing that it undermines peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, as well as the very political foundations of China-US ties.

Even more “loud” was the statement by the Chinese Ministry of Defense announcing that it was going to start “targeted fightingin the region in response to the visit of the speaker of the US House of Representatives.

The Chinese military has announced that they are going to launch a military operation near Taiwan starting Tuesday night. As part of these operations, it was announced that missiles would also be fired into the sea east of Taiwan.

Air and sea exercises are expected in the north, southwest and northeast of Taiwan, long-range firing in the Taiwan Strait and missile tests at sea east of Taiwan, China said in a related statement.

In response to China’s announcement of military high schools, Taiwan’s defense ministry accused Beijing of trying to threaten Taiwan’s strategic ports and cities with these actions.

Two questions

In this context, there are basically two questions: one short-term and one long-term.

Could military tensions escalate in the Greater Taiwan area in the coming hours? And if so, where and to what extent? This is a short term issue.

As for the medium and long term, this is not so much about Asia, but about the war that continues on another big front in Ukraine. Could Pelosi’s visit force Beijing to change its stance on Ukraine, paving the way for sending Chinese weapons systems to Russian forces?

Russian tankette

However, the Russian Foreign Ministry hastened to escalate the situation today, arguing that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is a “pure provocation” and that China has every right to take measures to protect its sovereign rights.

However, Thomas Friedman of The New York Times notes that the current crisis is likely to benefit Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as Pelosi’s visit provides him with an opportunity to demonstrate military might. thereby distracting the Chinese themselves from several failures of the Chinese leadership that have come before: the problems caused by the Zero-Covid strategy and debilitating lockdowns, the real estate bubble that threatens a banking crisis within China. etc.

For now, of course, this display of military might by Beijing remains… under control.