According to a Reuters poll that last successfully predicted champions in 2010, Brazil are promised a sixth World Cup win at the tournament, which starts on November 20 in Qatar.

A global survey of 135 football analysts around the world confirmed betting market predictions that Brazil would win for the first time since 2002.

Nearly half of those polled expected Brazil to win, with 30% split evenly between France and Argentina. Germany, England and Belgium scored high single digits.

“Brazil have a great chance this time around thanks to the depth and variety of their attack combined with his experience. [μέσου] Casemiro and Thiago Silva in the back,” said Garima Kapoor, an economist at Elara Capital in Mumbai.

Brazil’s talent was highlighted in the poll, with Neymar and Vinicius Junior starting the season brilliantly for Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid respectively, while the goalkeeping duo Alisson and Ederson also shone.

“We give a 17% chance that Brazil will win the tournament, which means five to one,” wrote Peter Dixon, chief risk analyst for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Fitch Solutions in London.

Mr Dixon singled out Germany in second place with 11% (8 to 1) and France in third place with 8% (11 to 1).

His calculation differs from the bookmakers’ betting, in which England is third compared to Mr. Dixon’s 4% chance, mainly because bookmakers’ odds are calculated based on how much they have to pay, not on opportunities.

Forecasts in previous years also used quantitative models, while others used simpler methods such as guesswork and superstition.

EA Sports is the creator of the FIFA gaming franchise that has correctly predicted the winners of the previous three World Cups by simulating all 64 matches in its game, the company said. Argentina raise a trophy.

Argentina, undefeated since losing to Brazil in July 2019, is approaching Italy’s record for the longest unbeaten streak of any team in international football.

Nearly 50% of the responses came from Europe, followed by North America and Asia at about 15% each. South American forecasts were just over 10% and the rest were from Africa, Australia or New Zealand.

Spain’s victory at the 2010 tournament in South Africa was the last Reuters poll to correctly predict the winner. Economists failed to predict Italy’s fourth title in 2006, with Germany and France winning the last two.

If France retains the trophy, it will be the first since Brazil in 1962.

England’s continued failure to lift the trophy for the first time since 1966 hasn’t stopped 5% of those polled from saying they will do so this year.

“Failing to build on the momentum that took the country to the Euro 2020 final, England’s longtime underdogs can only hope they get past the last 16 this time around,” said Isaac Macego, an economist at Nedbank in Johannesburg.

Denmark topped the list of outsiders.

Nearly half of those polled were split between Lionel Messi and Parisian teammate Neymar, who won the Ballon d’Or, awarded to the best player. The last time the Argentine maestro won it was eight years ago in Brazil.

Another PSG player, Kylian Mbappe, was selected as the player most likely to score the most goals to win the Golden Boot award.

Qatar reportedly spent about $220 billion to host the tournament – nearly fifteen times more than the second-highest cost tournament – but 41% of respondents said it would have no long-term economic impact.

Almost the same percentage said it would be net positive, while 21% said it would be negative.

Source: Reuters.