Faced with different “rates” due to a simple analog urns all parties and first of all North Dakota, SYRIZA and PASOKbecause they understand that the outcome of the first electoral contest will be the catalyst for the second elections with a new electoral law from which the next government is expected to emerge.

Party headquarters are developing their plans to win these bets, while the election schedule is usually being finalized. Unless extraordinary events occur in the next two months that will speed up or slow down the recourse to elections, according to the information:

On March 3 or 10, Parliament will be dissolved and elections will be called. The first elections will be held on 9 April. The second, with a new election law, on 14 or 21 May.

Political developments in Ankara will also play a role in the final decisions of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. In Athens, the most likely scenario is a first-round presidential election in Turkey on May 14, with no winner expected as 50% plus one vote is required. Thus, a week later, the country will go to re-elections, while Tayyip Erdogan, meanwhile, will remain at the head of the country. Thus, these seven days may turn out to be “dangerous” in the sense that the possibility cannot be ruled out that the Turkish president will take some kind of “aggressive” step in the field of Greek-Turkish relations in order to raise his interest. .

But what are the “bets” of the parties, which are also determined by the experience of citizens’ electoral behavior in 2012? In other words, the most recent period during which the country was brought to two consecutive confrontations with a difference of one month – first in May, and then in June – when the Samara government emerged with the participation of PASOK and DIMAR.

N.D. and 33%

For N.D. critical, but certainly not decisive, is the excess of 33% in the first pre-election competition. As the saying goes, if this succeeds, the strong governance dilemma that will be raised during the second vote, the expected further polarization, as well as increased voter mobilization could push rates above 37% and the goal of self-rule. -the trust. It is significant that from May 2012 to June – under different, however, partly circumstances – citizens once again rallied around the parties that gave the prospect of governance: N.D. collected in the June elections a percentage of 29.66%, recording an increase of 10.81%, and SYRIZA – 26.89%, with an increase in its percentage by 10.11%.

It should be noted that in Megaros Maximos it is not considered an improbable or unfavorable scenario that the difference with SYRIZA in a simple proportional box is less than that recorded by current public opinion polls, as its growth is expected to increase. However, as they say, in this case, in the re-elections, the dilemma of N.D. or SYRIZA will be more intense, the pressure on the smaller parties will be the strongest and the goal of self-reliance will be more easily achieved, since, as you know, it is not the difference between the two parties that matters, but the percentage of the first party.

In addition, on the way to the first ND elections, it will not only invest in triangular security, stability and development and in a strong social “package” of the last three years: it will move along the “we said, we did” axis, while highlighting all the gaps and problems of the SYRIZA period, implicitly promoting the position that every vote not directed by N.D. could reinstate Alexis Tsipras as prime minister.

In the same way, the recent position of Nikos Androulakis regarding the return of N.D. will be “used”. in opposition. However, despite the fact that Maximos Palace will raise the gauntlet before every PASOK attack during the pre-election period, he is not going to burn through all the scenarios of post-election cooperation if the results of the second pre-election showdown so require.

According to the plan, the first match will take place on April 9. The second, with a new election law, on 14 or 21 May.

SYRIZA and difference

SYRIZA’s stated goal is to win first place in a simple proportional vote contest to move towards the formation of a progressive government without resorting to a second vote. That goal seems especially far off, judging by current opinion polls. However, many believe that even a defeat by a margin of 1%-2% in the upcoming elections by simple proportionality will be a “winning bet” for Kumunduru. And this is because it would reverse the image of ND political dominance, while it would increase pressure on the way to the second elections on the parties that move on the periphery of SYRIZA, that is, PASOK towards the center and MERA25 to the left, but also towards the KKE.

In fact, it should be noted that the choice of Alexis Tsipras to move towards the position that he will not pursue a “government of losers”, but wants SYRIZA to be the first party, distinguishes some important political facts: the President of SYRIZA:

• He will not be obliged, within his research mandate, to engage in otherwise fruitless negotiations with Mr. Androulakis and especially Janis Varoufakis, which would strengthen the argument of Megaros Maximos in an attempt to revive the 2015 government.

• This solves the Megaros Maximos dilemma that every vote other than ND contributes to SYRIZA’s return to power, as Koumunduru’s argument would be that “if you want Mr. Mitsotakis to leave, vote for us.”

“Pure” double digit

The “bet” on Nikos Androulakis will be that in a simple proportional ballot box it will exceed 12%, i.e. that PASOK will record an increase of at least 50% compared to the 8.1% it won in the 2019 elections years under the leadership of Fofi Gennimat. In this case, Mr. Androulakis will be able to appear on election night as the “winner” since it is believed to be certain that the N.D. and SYRIZA will be lower than in previous elections.

However, the really decisive factor for the President of PASOK will be how “informed” the composition of the electorate who elects him in the first election will be: that is, whether they will vote for him and in the second or whether a significant part of him will show centrifugal tendencies towards N.D. and SYRIZA. The ideal for Mr. Androulakis is, as the saying goes, “to follow the path of Evangelos Venizelos in 2012”. Then PASOK, despite the great rise of N.D. and SYRIZA lost just 0.9% between May and June, falling from 13.18% to 12.28%.

Casidiaris and 151

Under the question mark of the ballot box is also the Kasidiaris party, whose prospect of bringing back the “dark” days of the “Golden Dawn” to parliament has been erased. The government has sent an order to SYRIZA and PASOK banning the imprisoned former Golden Dawn leader from participating in the next election and is awaiting their response to make final decisions. However, it should be noted that this particular provision, if finally approved, is not subject to the provisions of the electoral law and can therefore be put into effect immediately by 151 votes.