Recep Erdogan wants to change the paradigm: the Black Sea will cease to be a “Russian lake” and become a “Turkish one”, including by using the geostrategic position through which it controls the entry-exit channels of the Black Sea. His happiness lies in the fact that Ukraine has achieved the unimaginable: it has diverted all Russian warships to the Caucasian-Abkhazian coast.

Desire is a typical target of an autocrat in times of crisis. But is Erdogan an autocrat? His behavior, imprisoning political opponents and suppressing any opposition activity, rejecting freedom of expression, free movement of ideas and public debate, approaches the profile of a dictator who refers to external threats that only he can solve, which here leads to the obligation trying to keep him in power.

In summary, we can say that he succeeded in almost everything he planned, to gain regional influence due to the “double game”, Turkey, which is a NATO country, applies sanctions to the Russian Federation in accordance with its own interests.

Let’s recall the conflicts around the Black Sea, which led to the cessation of extraction of alternative Russian energy resources or the cessation of the construction of alternative Russian energy routes: Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Dombas with Crimea and Syria.

We summarize the areas where the Russian Federation intervened after the start of the war in Ukraine: Africa south of the Sahara – where the Wagner units operate, the humanitarian crisis of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh – from where the Russian troops were withdrawn, the conflict with a high potential for escalation in Kosovo between ethnic Albanians and Serbs – where the Serbs are incited by the representatives of Serbia, great friends of Vladimir Putin, the war between Israel and Hamas (incorrectly called that, but we accept the phrase), and then the humanitarian crisis in Gaza – where the leaders of Hamas had meetings with high representatives in the Kremlin. To all this we add the influence on the Kremlin of the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, as well as nationalist or radicalized Muslim groups in Western countries.

We see crisis pressure on the democratic West, which is beneficial to the Russian Federation and which can turn into a global conflict, says the head of the Military Intelligence Service of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov.

After the occupation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, the first difference of opinion between the two presidents appeared: Turkey did not recognize the annexation. The “friendship” between Putin and Erdogan strengthened in August 2016, after the coup attempt in Turkey, with “detractors” suggesting that Germany did not want to receive Erdogan and he would go to Moscow, from where he would also give a famous video – a telephone interview , interview broadcast on CNN Turkey. (An insider’s statement at a conference covered by Chatham House rules.) In fact, the trade relationship between the two sides is older, today there are billions of billions of euros in contracts, especially in the energy sector, with the Russian Federation on a par with China in Turkish imports (9%).

Turkish investments on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast (2.5 billion euros in 2020) are focused on trade in agricultural products, and the start of the war in February 2021 meant a decrease in the profits of Turkish companies, which led to the forcing of the Agreement between Erdogan and Putin on the operation of the corridor export of grain from Ukraine to the main importers. He operated for almost a year, after which he was condemned by the Kremlin, citing the fact that the ships arriving in Ukraine were not empty, but supplied the Ukrainian army with weapons and ammunition.

From the very beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Turkey helped Ukraine by selling Baylaktar drones, which were very successful against Russian tanks.

We will remind you that immediately after the occupation of Crimea in 2014, Turkey came to the defense of Ukraine and condemned the ethnic cleansing of the Crimean Tatars.

On the western coast of the Black Sea, Turkey has as its allies Romania and Bulgaria, countries with which it is trying to expand its cooperation of all kinds.

Turkish soft power in Romania is present through investments in local media (Kanal D) that broadcast quality Turkish series, through close relations between the Turkish-Tatar community and governmental and non-governmental organizations in Turkey, through the business community and important investments made in Romania, up to military cooperation. And in relations with Bulgaria, everything is similar.

The Republic of Moldova should also include this equation. There, Turkey has missed relations with the Gagauzian authorities, but investments are increasing, Turkey is the sixth investor, generating commercial exchange of more than half a billion euros.

Regarding military cooperation, I cannot help but mention the discussions on the creation of a joint force within NATO between Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey to remove sea mines from the Black Sea.

On the eastern coast of the Black Sea, everything is much more complicated. There are three potential conflict zones here: South Abkhazia and Ossetia, parts of Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh, territory disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan, all three former Soviet republics that the Kremlin still wants to get its hands on.

Two countries, Georgia and Armenia, represent a Christian island in a territory with a majority Muslim population. History is also not forgotten, Turkey does not recognize the genocide committed in Armenia more than 100 years ago (1915-1916). The difference between Turkey and the two Caucasian countries is great in terms of population, economic development and values. For more than 15 years, Georgia has been trying to escape from the influence of the Kremlin, wanting to join NATO and the EU. Armenia’s leadership has been abandoned by Russia, believing that the current leadership is the result of a “color revolution” spawned by the West, which effectively no longer considers Russia to be the protector of Christianity in the Caucasus. After the withdrawal of part of the peacekeeping corps from Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan attacked Armenian troops in the area and within 24 hours they surrendered. The following is a product of the humanitarian crisis: 100,000 Armenians who lived in this territory left their homes and emigrated to Armenia.

President Recep Erdogan is present in almost all of the listed crises, winning or trying to win something in each: in Syria, the destruction of Kurdish forces, in Ukraine (and the Black Sea) from the transportation and processing of its grain, in Nagorno-Karabakh, the territorial conquest of Azerbaijan (considered the second Turkish state). , in the conflict in Gaza the leading place among the countries of the Muslim faith, especially among peoples who speak Altaic languages.

It will be recalled that in September 2023, Turkey organized joint military exercises with some Turkic-speaking countries.

The creation of the Altai Alliance puts Erdogan in a position of threat to the Russian Federation, which includes a Muslim population that speaks Turkic languages.

The Western leadership has lost sight of many of the consequences of Turkey’s actions, which have forced Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Ankara to have a say in the resolution of existing crises.

The fact that there is an alliance between Russia, China and Iran, and that Turkey has common interests with the three anti-Western players on certain specific issues, does not mean that Ankara sees them as allies because Erdogan wants to protect power. beyond the Caucasus, where it collides with Moscow’s interests and Beijing’s interests and the energy relationship with the Russian Federation, which we still don’t know how that will be resolved.

Turkey wants to become an important energy center of Europe. So far, he has partially succeeded, including with the support of Vladimir Putin.

In Turkey, the natural gas import pipeline capacity at the moment is: TANAP – 23 million cubic meters per year, BTE – 24 million cubic meters per year, Turkish Stream – 31.5 million cubic meters per year and Blue Stream – 16 million cubic meters per year. Total: 94.5 million m3/year.

It goes without saying that Turkey’s industry is a large consumer of energy, to which we also add the large domestic energy needs of its 85 million citizens. – Read the entire article and comment on Contributors.ro