During the February survey, CFA Romania, an association that brings together leading economists, continued to survey the risks that could affect Romania, but this time the horizon was 10 years. The main expected risks for the next 10 years also come from outside the economy, namely the risk of armed conflicts between states, the risk of disinformation, as well as the risk of cyber attacks. In second place are economic risks, among which the risk of labor shortage and the risk of default of the state debt are highlighted. Climatic risks still occupy the last place, their intensity is increasing significantly. Among them, the risk of extreme climate and pollution stands out.

Adrian Codirlasu, CFA – Vice President of the Romanian CFA Association states: “After the fiscal shock in January, which reduced confidence in the economy, in February confidence in the economy returned to the trend of the second half of the previous year. In terms of risks for the 10-year horizon, geopolitical risks remain at the fore, especially disinformation, armed conflicts between states, as well as cyber attacks.”

The macroeconomic confidence indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased in February by 8.6 points to 60.7 points. This situation arose as a result of the growth of both components of the indicator.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator takes a value from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding:

• Current conditions – related to the business environment and the labor market;

• One-year time horizon expectations for: the business environment, the labor market, the evolution of personal income at the level of the economy, and the evolution of personal wealth at the level of the economy.

Expected inflation for the 12-month horizon (March 2025) decreased slightly from a year earlier and averaged 5.46%, the lowest since November 2021. At the same time, more than 83% of participants expect a decrease in the level of inflation in the next 12 months.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, more than 83% of participants expect the lei to depreciate in the next 12 months, while the rest expect stagnation. Thus, the average value of expectations for a 6-month horizon is 5.0029 lei per euro, while for a 12-month horizon the average value of the expected exchange rate is 5.0500 lei per euro.