Renewable energy production will boom worldwide in the next five years, especially solar energy, which will triple in size. But the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that dependence on China, which supplies more than 90% of solar panels, could be risky, and new manufacturing facilities elsewhere in the world are urgently needed. In addition, governments should pursue policies to encourage investment in grids and storage capacity.

Renewable energy is set to boom in the coming years, and in 2025 it will surpass coal as the number one source of generation worldwide, according to an IEA report.

Here are some of the milestones renewable energy will reach:

• In 2024, wind and solar combined will surpass hydro
• In 2025, renewable energy sources will replace coal and become the main source of generation worldwide
• In 2025, wind energy will overtake nuclear energy
• In 2026, solar energy will surpass nuclear energy
• In 2028, solar energy will replace wind energy

In the European Union, the energy produced by rooftop solar panels will exceed that of large power plants in five years, as both residential and industrial consumers look to reduce their electricity bills amid rising prices.

The good news is that the price of solar panels has fallen by nearly 50% over the past year as panel production capacity has tripled from 2021 levels.

Big challenge: Dependence on China

The bad news is that almost all the panels are coming and will continue to come from one country, namely China. Now the share is 97%, and in the future it will remain at the level of 80-95%. And this despite significant subsidies for the construction of factories for the production of panels in the United States and India.

“China’s role in solar energy and renewable energy in general is very important. First of all, China is a country with a high level of emissions, and it is important that photovoltaic panels are installed on roofs,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said at a press conference.

“Secondly, the fact that it produces a lot of renewable energy technology means lower costs for the entire planet.

On the other hand, diversification is needed for security reasons. That’s the right word: diversification. Dependence on one technology, one country and one route can be risky,” Birol added.

Therefore, there is a need to build more factories in Europe and the USA. Panels produced here, even if they are more expensive than Chinese ones, will improve security of supply.

Forecasts for wind energy production are not as optimistic as for solar energy.

The industry is experiencing disruptions in turbine supply chains, particularly in Europe and North America, as well as additional costs. Many of the offshore wind projects are behind schedule.

Network and storage investments are required

Strengthening networks is another big challenge, says Haymi Bahar, a senior analyst at the IEA.

“There are already huge queues to connect to the network. There is three times more capacity in the queue than was connected in the last year. Thus, countries should invest in strengthening networks and build new networks,” Bahar said.

He argued that governments should pursue policies to encourage investment in networks and storage.

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