The price of natural gas in Romania has caught up with the price in Europe, but it reacts to the decline quite differently. The Romanian market has been slower to react to some of the increases that have taken place at the European level, but even slower to react to price corrections. After they increased, they did not decrease as much in Romania as in Europe. Due to the dysfunction of the gas market in Romania, the weighted average price on the BRM-PMP exchange turned out to be higher than the SPOT price on the Dutch TTF exchange, the most representative gas exchange for Europe, the analysis of the Intelligent Energy Association shows.

• HotNews.ro notes that currently, on a small exchange in Bucharest, there are few quotations around 60-64 EUR/MWh, and on the gas hub in Amsterdam 30-34 EUR/MWh.
• However, it should be noted that there are extremely few quotations for Romania and only for the first quarter of 2024, given that the market is not free, the price is limited, starting with producers who are obliged to sell at a price of 150 lei/MWh. This is the purchase price, plus shipping, distribution and supplier markups.

The state should not pay any amount of compensation for natural gas

The weighted average price was calculated as the weighted average ratio between the quantity and prices of natural gas delivered in the base month, according to the Intelligent Energy Association. This calculation is based on medium- and long-term contracts, as well as volumes delivered through intraday and day-ahead transactions.

The actual price paid by the population was not that high, as a capping scheme was applied and the government paid the difference between the market price and the invoice price.

Asociatia Energia Inteligentă believes that at current quotations, bills should not increase in the winter of 2024/2025. Thus, in 2024, the state will not have to pay any compensation for natural gas bills.

Without a strategy, prices for end users can double after the cap

Contract prices are at around 0.55 lei/kWh, a price that will likely remain in place until at least the summer of 2025, the Intelligent Energy Association said. But for the final consumer, the price is limited to 0.31 lei/kWh, and what exceeds is borne by the state.

In the absence of a post-period price cap strategy, end-users will be forced to pay double the current price from April 1, 2025, the date the cap/compensation scheme ends, the Intelligent Energy Association said.

The most expensive energy price capping scheme in the EU

HotNews.ro analyzed the support measures provided by all EU countries to lower energy prices and found that Romania appears to have the most expensive subsidy scheme and the longest in terms of application period. This is in conditions when the energy crisis has passed and the markets have calmed down.

According to the National Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE), the amounts sent by suppliers for settlement currently amount to 23.3 billion lei.

In Romania, subsidies were given to energy suppliers and not directly to consumers, as in other countries.

The data analyzed by HotNews.ro is the data received by Eurostat from the member countries, at the level of October 2023.

According to official Eurostat data, the price of electricity and natural gas in contracts concluded between suppliers and Romanian consumers, regardless of whether they are domestic or industrial, was one of the highest in the EU in the first half of 2023.

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