Romania, unlike the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, has a chronic deficit in foreign trade in goods, exacerbated by crises after 2019, according to an analysis by Alpha Bank chief economist Ella Callai. If the situation repeats itself in 2022, when the deficit for the whole year was a multiple of 1.8 of the deficit achieved in the first 7 months, 2023 could end with a deficit of 8.6% of GDP.

And the foreign trade of the control countries suffered. The Czech Republic’s current account surplus narrowed to 1.8% of GDP in 2022 from 8% in 2019, and Poland and Hungary moved from surplus to deficit in 2022, but all are likely to return to around their 2019 surplus.

In Romania, 5 out of 6 product categories, according to the UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) classification, produce a deficit in 2022. The largest deficit is created by high-tech products, 3.5% of GDP, followed by a deficit of raw materials at 3% of GDP, a deficit of low-tech products at 2.6% of GDP, and a deficit of medium-tech products at 1.8% of GDP.

In last place is the deficit of processed raw materials, 0.9% of GDP. According to the results of the first seven months of 2023, it can be estimated that for the whole year the deficit of processed raw materials and low- and high-tech products will remain, and the deficit of primary and medium-tech products will remain. twice as compared to 2022.

Other countries seem to specialize in the export of several categories of goods with which they manage to generate trade surpluses. The Czech Republic has a permanent surplus of medium-tech products, Hungary has a surplus of high-tech products, and Poland has a surplus of low-tech products, processed raw materials and medium-tech products. All of them have deficits of primary products that increased even higher than Romania’s deficit in 2022 due to the energy crisis and will remain so despite the downward trend recorded in the first 7 months of 2023.

In Romania, both components of the low-tech product category create a deficit, as in Hungary, and two out of three components of the medium-tech product category create a surplus, as in other countries.

On the contrary, only in Romania both components of the high-tech product category create a deficit. Hungary has surpluses in both components, while Poland and the Czech Republic, starting this year, manage to have surpluses in the electronic and electrical goods component.

The increase in export volumes depends on the increase in production capacity of the manufacturing industry, which is competitive on the foreign market not only from the point of view of labor productivity, but also from the point of view of energy efficiency and reduction of climate risks. .

The volume of industrial production in Romania is similar to that of Poland, but smaller than that of the Czech Republic and Hungary, mainly due to the smaller size of the medium-high-tech and high-tech sectors.

Labor productivity is similar to that of the analyzed countries in low-tech industries, second only to Hungary in medium-low-tech industries, the same as Poland in medium-high-tech industries, but lowest in high-tech industries.

Energy efficiency is highest in low-tech industries, second only to the Czech Republic in medium-high-tech industries, but lowest in high-tech industries (Fig. 2c). The intensity of greenhouse gas emissions is the highest in all branches of the manufacturing industry, with the exception of low-tech ones.

In this case, maintaining the competitiveness of industry, especially that part of it that uses more advanced technologies, will be difficult to achieve, and therefore, balancing the balance of trade in goods will not happen soon.