The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects the Chinese economy to continue to recover to support oil demand growth in the second half of 2023 and into 2024, according to the cartel’s latest monthly report released on Thursday.

OPEC Headquarters, ViennaPhoto: Philipp-Moritz Jenne/AP/Profimedia

“Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) to around 104.25 bpd in 2024,” according to an initial estimate by OPEC, which revises its forecasts monthly.

Non-OECD countries “should be the driver of growth”, accounting for almost 2.0mb/d, according to the cartel, which names China, the Middle East and other Asian countries as the main drivers of this growth, which will also be sustained by India , Latin America and Africa.

For 2023, OPEC is keeping its growth forecast, slightly revised up to 2.4 mb/d from 2022, for global demand at 102 mb/d, up from 101.9 mb/d last month.

Once again, OPEC points to “higher demand in China in the second quarter of 2023.”

“Key countries” in oil consumption, including China and India, as well as other emerging economies in Asia, will continue to experience strong growth “and will be responsible for almost half of global economic growth next year”, according to OPEC, provided inflation continues to fall.