A green future for the planet is an unattainable goal worldwide. The critical question is how we achieve this. In other words, how will we get out of today’s reality into a zero-pollution energy economy that will provide a standard of living, modern and energy-intensive human needs at affordable prices. The energy crisis has highlighted the serious shortcomings of Europe’s earlier plan to phase out fossil fuels. It cost over $1 trillion. euro and forced Europe to put… the handbrake on climate targets and return to coal, not to be left without electricity last winter, but also to “turn a blind eye” to natural gas and nuclear energy as a necessary fuel for the energy transition, after years of hostile treatment.

The implications of the energy crisis have put the energy transition discussion on a more realistic footing at the European level and within the country. The demand for a complete restructuring of the energy market, taking into account new data and the real scale of the problem, is shared by both companies operating in the sector and the authorities.

During the discussion at the Delphi Forum, energy market participants characterized the rocky path to energy transition and the dangerous path without a redesign, which is summarized as follows:

RES without networks and interconnections is half the solution. Supply security must be restored as a priority.

Renewable energy sources (RES) alone, without batteries, cannot ensure the reliability of energy supply. Switching to renewables without prior investment in grids and international interconnections has led to an oversupply of green energy that is shrinking to prevent power grid shutdowns, limiting the profitability of multibillion-dollar investments.

During Easter days, the Independent Electricity Transmission Operator (ADMIE) threw 50% of the renewable energy generation into the trash can to keep the system running. RES, when windy and sunny, produce so much energy that they emit blocks of natural gas, which, however, are necessary when weather conditions limit the production of RES, as a result of which their sustainability depends on operational means, and we end up with an expensive electrical system. Stochasticity from the production side due to RES is slowly shifting to the demand side with the electrification of transport and own consumption from the scattered and increasing production of small photovoltaic installations.

The massive penetration of renewable energy in itself cannot remain the backbone of our energy policy. Renewables without grids and interconnections is half the solution, and security of supply must return as a priority along with the economics of the new energy model. There are no magic solutions for a smooth transition of energy. We need an energy center that will include all types of fuel, as well as natural gas, hydrogen, renewable energy and carbon capture systems. Without a redesign of the energy market, we cannot safely enter tomorrow…

International connections are critical

“We have to be honest with the transition to green energy. Let’s take this seriously. Not with excessive triumph, not with fear. There is a gap between where we are now and where we want to go in which storage technologies will be created that can keep green energy from declining as it is today and will happen at a faster pace in the coming years as long as storage technologies are improving,” said Manos Manousakis, Managing Director of ADMIE. He also focused on the issue of international relations, the need to strengthen which, according to him, was shown by the deplorable situation with the war in Ukraine and now Europe is supporting new alternative corridors for the transfer of energy resources from Africa. He referred to the Egypt-Greece and Israel-Cyprus-Greece interconnection projects of interest to Greece, noting, however, that it was essential that the energy to be transmitted reach the center of Europe. He even said that ADMIE is consulting with the EU. to create vertical electrical corridors from north to south, making Greece a green energy exporter.

“There is a tendency in society to talk about many things and think that they have already happened,” emphasized Andreas Siamisij, head of the HELLENiQ ENERGY group, speaking about the fuels of the future and mentioning, for example, hydrogen and electric mobility, technologies that, as he said, on their development will take years. The big problem that needs to be tackled overall, he said, is “how to combine traditional natural gas building blocks with renewables so that we can ensure a secure energy transition.”

“Energy markets need to be rebuilt. If they are not recycled, we will see something that we do not like. There are tools and methods. It’s just that all market participants – governments, regulators, investors, financial institutions – must work together to create the foundation for the day ahead,” said Ioannis Kalafatas, head of the energy sector at Mytilineos. Planning, according to him, both at the European and country level should take into account that the single European market has now been formed and what happens in each country is no longer of relative importance. The question is whether Europe will take this into account in its plans so that we do not reach the point of absolute imbalance, ”he emphasized, and with regard to Greece, he noted that plans should also take into account a completely different model market that has been formed.

In terms of production, Mr. Calafata said, the electrical system is leaving fossil fuels behind and renewable energy considerations prevail as storage technologies still have a long way to go to mature. On the other hand, there will be a large increase in demand for electricity due to the electrification of transport, which will also be characterized by stochasticity, which has not happened so far.

“There are no magic solutions that allow you to move to the transition of energy overnight. We need an energy hub that will include both natural gas and hydrogen, as well as renewables and carbon capture,” said Ilias Bekiro, CEO of Corinth Pipeworks, a subsidiary of Cenergy Holdings, who highlighted the issue of security of supply. “The supply chain must be maintained. “Many statements can be made, many gigawatts of renewable energy can fall from the sky, but without the appropriate infrastructure, critical raw materials and production, the stated goals cannot be achieved,” he stressed.

The theme of networks, international interconnections and storage was emphasized by the head of PPC Renewables Konstantinos Mavro and RWE Renewables Hellas Kostas Papamandelo. “Renewable energy without grids and batteries is half the battle. I call for faster investment in grids, international interconnections and batteries, as well as the completion of the institutional framework,” Mr. Mavros emphasized. “Without investments in networks and batteries, the goals set for renewable energy will not be achieved,” said Mr. Papamantelos. Aristotelis Hadavas, Head of Europe at Enel Green Power, also pointed to the need for an immediate change in the regulatory framework so that investments can be made quickly in storage systems, as well as in the expansion and digitization of networks.

Natural gas will continue to play an important role in the system

According to ExxonMobil Cyprus CEO Varnavas Theodosiou, the hydrocarbon sector plays an important role in the energy transition and energy security. ExxonMobil predicts that in 2050 the world’s population will increase by 25%, which means a 15% increase in energy demand, as the improvement in living standards in developing countries will outweigh the decline that will occur due to energy efficiency in developed countries. RES will account for 55% of the additional supply to cover increased demand, while natural gas, as he stressed, “in all scenarios, even in a zero-emissions scenario, will play a key role in the future energy mix and participate with 30% in the mix in 2050″.

ExxonMobil’s proposal to create a new, low-pollution industry that should be supported by appropriate policies and include both renewables and hydrocarbons is based on these projections. The challenge is twofold, Mr. Theodosiou said. “On the one hand, to provide the energy products needed by mankind to maintain the way of life they have conquered, and on the other hand, to move more rapidly towards climate neutrality” and be critical of the elimination of EU hydrocarbons. policy, he added: “Recently in the energy crisis, we have seen how quickly we forget about climate targets when we need energy, and as a result, we are now burning more carbon in Europe than in the past.”

If we replace coal, which currently makes up 1/3 of the world’s energy mix, with natural gas, according to ExxonMobil’s scenarios, we will reduce pollutant emissions by 60%, and at the same time, natural gas will facilitate the penetration of renewable energy. The second pillar of this energy transition strategy is the production of hydrogen from natural gas with carbon sequestration, since, according to Mr Teodosiou, together with advanced biofuels they are the only technologies that can reduce pollutant emissions in hard-to-decarbonize areas, such as manufacturing electricity, heavy steel and cement industries and commercial vehicles. These industries, he pointed out, collect 80% of the world’s production of pollutants, while the production of pollutants from cars corresponds to only 10%.
ExxonMobil estimates that by 2050, a $14 trillion new clean energy industry will be created. dollars. Of these, 6 trillion. there will be a molecular industry (hydrogen, carbon capture and biofuels) and 8 trillion. from wind, solar and nuclear energy.

Mr. Teodosiou’s opinion on the role of natural gas in the energy transition is fully shared by the head of Hellenic Hydrocarbons and Energy Resources Management Company (EDEYEP), Aristophanes Stefanos. According to him, Greece is one of the few European countries capable of supplying Europe with natural gas, which will finally be seen from the results of the first exploration drilling in 2025.

Mr. Stefatos also indirectly expressed concern about a possible reassessment of the exploration program in Crete and the Ionian region due to the fall in natural gas prices. “Let’s not get carried away by price fluctuations and fascination with new technologies. We will have good winters and bad winters. A colder perspective is needed,” he said.