Production and production facilities in oil Iraq is likely to peak with an increase of about 25% over the next five years. This means they fall short of the 2027 targets, ending Iraq’s longstanding ambition to compete with Saudi Arabiaits member country OPEC with the maximum output within the coalition.

Internal political infighting made it impossible for Iraq to invest more quickly in increasing production. As the energy transition accelerates, this means that Baghdad may never be able to cash in on the hundreds of billions of barrels it stores underground, even despite the efforts of the country’s new energy minister, who is keen to attract investment. As of 2016, Iraqi production has stalled at about 4.5 million barrels per day.

Its production capacity has grown rapidly in the past as it opened up the industry in 2009 and international oil companies upgraded the country’s largest oil fields. But production growth has slowed in part because Iraq agreed to limit it as a result of a supply policy agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+.

Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani, who took office in October, plans to update Iraq’s oil production strategies to meet local needs while complying with the terms of the OPEC+ deal, Iraqi oil ministry spokesman Asim told Reuters. Jihad. Jihad noted that it is too early for the new government to talk about any significant increase in oil production in the country outside of the OPEC+ deal. Under the terms of the deal, oil production in Iraq by December is 4.43 million barrels per day.

The country’s ambition to compete with Saudi Arabia is ending.

As a result, Iraq has turned its attention to the oil and gas sectors while reducing capital spending in the oil sector, analysts at FGE and Rystad Energy told Reuters. In the oil sector, the country has repeatedly failed to reach its target of 7-8 million barrels per day, compared to the current 5 million barrels per day. The previous government said last year that it hoped to reach the highest level by 2027.

Some of her advisers energy predict that Iraq may never reach the targets. Production capacity will peak at 6.3 million barrels per day by 2028, after which it will begin to decline, said Iman Naseri, managing director of FGE in the Middle East.

According to him, the political environment, security and investment environment did not allow Iraq to increase production above this level. “We believe that Iraq’s current goal seems elusive, if not impossible,” Iman Naseri concluded.

Rystad Energy expected production to be capped at 5.5 million barrels per day by 2027 due to ramp-up restrictions and because projects vital to boosting it are not moving forward.