Russia’s war against Ukraine in numbers

February 24th marks one year since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. Despite counter-advances by the Ukrainian army, substantial parts of eastern Ukraine remain occupied by Russian troops. More recently, on January 19, 2023, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the city of Soledar in the Donbass region, which has since come under Russian control again.

Millions of people fleeing

According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the war led to the second largest displacement crisis in the world. So far, 6.3 million Ukrainians have found refuge in Europe. Within the country, another 6.6 million people are internally displaced.

According to the UN, many people are also being deported to Russia or forced to emigrate there, especially from eastern areas of Ukraine. This explains the high number of refugees in Russia. Some of them have already tried to make their way to Europe from Russia.

Poverty and recession

According to UNHCR, the humanitarian situation in Ukraine “deteriorated rapidly”. About 40% of the population now depends on humanitarian aid. The economic situation is also catastrophic. According to the World Bank and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 35% in 2022. About 60% of the population now lives on the poverty line. Russia’s attacks destroyed an estimated €130 billion ($139 billion) of Ukrainian infrastructure.

Resilience in Russia

In contrast to Ukraine, the situation in Russia is less critical than expected, as the economy has not suffered as much in comparison. But with the additional EU sanctions passed against Russia in February this year, experts believe that existing sanctions will finally start to take effect.

Predictions for Russia’s economic future are very different: while the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development assumes that the Russian economy will shrink by 5.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a minimum growth of 0.3%.

After a surge in energy prices in March 2022, Russia’s oil and gas revenue initially jumped sharply and then steadily declined. Revenue from energy exports is now back to the pre-war level of December 2021.

In light of falling gas and oil prices, combined with falling demand, especially from the EU, and in light of China’s stagnant consumption, Russia’s energy export earnings are likely to decline further.

Billions for Ukrainian military

Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has received billions in military, humanitarian and financial aid. With more than €70 billion in funds, the US tops the list of donor countries.

The EU and its member states have mobilized more than €50 billion, with Germany one of the biggest arms suppliers to Ukraine. Military support valued at around €2.2 billion is planned for 2023.

In addition, NATO has increased its military presence on its eastern flank. Multinational Battlegroups Multinational BattlegroupsThe so-called multinational battlegroups have been deployed in the Baltic states and surveillance of airspace in the region has been strengthened.

Wheat price recovers

Many expected a global food crisis after the invasion, but so far the worst case scenario has been averted. According to the Ukrainian and US Departments of Agriculture, global wheat production will increase from 778 million tons in 2021-22 to 783 million tons in 2022-23.

The price of wheat, which peaked at over €430 per tonne after the Russian invasion in May 2022, has fallen to just under €300. This is close to pre-invasion price levels when wheat traded at €275 a tonne.

Production losses in Ukraine – still one of the world’s leading wheat producers – are currently offset by other countries. Australia and Russia, in particular, increased their production. According to the Russian news agency Tass, the increase is due to the “incorporation of the four Ukrainian territories” under Russian control. With 102 million tons, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture is also assuming a much better crop. than US Department of Agriculture estimates.

This article has been translated from German.