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Insurance is at a demographic impasse

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Insurance is at a demographic impasse

The adoption of immediate measures to increase the birth rate is considered absolutely necessary and absolutely decisive for the future of Greece, since the data shows that one person every 14 minutes … disappears from our population table, making Greece one of the oldest countries in the world of the European Union, which had dramatic consequences for economic development and, consequently, for the insurance system. Every day since the beginning of time, the population has decreased by 104 people. Greece’s “Population Clock” shows 208 births, 326 deaths and 14 influxes of immigrants daily.

Thus, the population of the country is estimated at 10,355,257 people, and experts are sounding the alarm. Demographic projections from Eurostat (EuroPop 2019) show that the population of our country will decrease to 8.6 million people in 2070.

The population of the country decreases daily by 104 people.

At the same time, the population aging index will increase from 35.1% in 2022 to 59.9% in 2070. Based on these demographic projections, the EU has calculated (Ageing Working Group 2021) that pension spending in our country as a percentage of GDP will decrease from 15.6% in 2020 to 11.9% in 2070 (Eurozone average from 12.1% in 2022 to 12.1% of GDP in 2070).

In this study, as a working hypothesis, it was considered that the fertility rate (BRF) from 1.32 children per woman of reproductive age in 2021 will increase to 1.39 children in 2030, to 1.43 children by 2040. , 1.47 children by 2050 1.50 children by 2060 and 1.54 children by 2070. In these demographics, it is assumed as a working hypothesis that wages will rise in line with the long-term average annual change in GDP (1 .2%) in the period 2020-2070. . Also, the labor force will decrease from 4.660 million people in 2022 to 3.5 million people in 2070 and, accordingly, employment from 4.1 million people in 2022 will decrease to 3.3 million employed in 2070.

According to Professor Emeritus of Panteion University Savvas Robolis, the need for immediate and coordinated planning and implementation of economic, social and demographic policies to increase the birth rate seems inconceivable. In fact, Mr. Robolis, in collaboration with Panteion University Professor Vassilis Betsis, prepared a study according to which, if only the total fertility rate increases from 1.32 children per woman in 2021 to 1.5 children by 2030 and reaches 1.7 per woman of reproductive age until 2040, and then remained on average stable at this level until 2070, then the population of our country in 2070 will be 9.5 million people, and not 8.6 million. In this case, the aging coefficient by 2070 will decrease from 59.9% to 54.2%. Labor productivity will increase, which will increase the long-term average annual rate of change of GDP by 0.3 percentage points, i.e. from 1.2% to 1.5%. Also, according to two experts, the workforce will increase from 3.5 million to 3.9 million people in 2021, and the employed – from 3.3 million to 3.650 million people. In this perspective, both scientists note in an interview with K, pension spending as a percentage of GDP, that is, the index of the stability of the social security system, will decrease in 2070 to 10.7% from 11.9% of GDP.

Author: Rula Salouru

Source: Kathimerini

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