The World Economic Forum in the Swiss mountains is synonymous with a model of globalized capitalism that is under attack everywhere. This year, the Forum has recognized these challenges by borrowing the modern term “multi-crisis” to describe the multifaceted dilemma arising from geopolitical confrontation, macroeconomic distortions and climate change. Multinational corporations from Microsoft to Goldman Sachs are cutting staff. Of more than 4,000 executives surveyed by PwC in October and November as part of the Davos survey, 40% believe their company will lose financial viability in ten years. However, the leaders of the international groups who came to Switzerland were less disappointed. “Things are not very good, but they are much better than they could be,” Daniel Pinto, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan, summed up the situation.

There are three main reasons for a more positive approach. First, China is phasing out its zero-tolerance policy on the virus much faster than anyone could have imagined. Analysts at Standard Chartered expect the world’s second-largest economy to grow nearly 6% this year, doubling its 2022 growth rate.

“Things are not so good, but much better than they could be.”

Secondly, Europe managed to keep the light. The combination of a warm winter, declining industrial energy consumption, and a rapid shift to alternative sources means the Old Continent has avoided disaster after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Third, inflation is showing signs of declining. As a result, investors moderated their expectations regarding future rate hikes. The S&P 500 has gained over 5% in the last quarter. A well-known investor has argued that the markets now offer more opportunities to buy what he calls QARP, or quality at a reasonable price. Many executives believe that the US and Europe will experience a mild recession this year and may even avoid contraction.

However, Davos does not reflect the global economy. Most of the CEOs in attendance run global businesses whose sprawl and access to capital markets are better equipped to weather the economic turmoil. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which have less reserves of safety, are underrepresented.