The chimneys of the existing PPC lignite units will burn until at least 2025 and 2028 of the new Ptolemaida V unit to ensure system adequacy. Also, in order to have sufficient production capacity in the next decade, the installed capacity of natural gas must be almost doubled, with the inclusion of a third unit in the system, in addition to Mytilineos, which is expected to be connected at the beginning of the year and Motor oil – TERNA, which is already under construction in Komotini. This is the main conclusion of the adequacy study for 2025-2035, which was submitted for approval to the Ministry of Environment and Energy by the Independent Electricity Transmission Operator (ADMIE).

The ADMIE study takes into account two scenarios for the penetration of renewable energy. One of the existing national energy and climate plans (2019) which provides for a total installed RES capacity of 15.5 GW and 1.8 GW of storage by 2030 and a faster transition with a total installed capacity of 24 GW RES and 3 GW of storage . In both scenarios, in order to ensure sufficiency, in 2025 seven operating brown coal blocks of PPC (total capacity of 2000 MW) will be decommissioned.

The new 615 MW Ptolemaida V unit enters the system on 01/01/2023 and is decommissioned on 12/31/2028 as a lignite block, only to reappear two years later (01/01/2031) as a natural gas unit. with increased power of 1000 MW.

On 01.01.2023, a new Mytilineos gas installation in Ag. must be connected to the system. Nikolaos of Voiotia (825 MW) and the new Motor Oil – TERNA plant in Komotini (825 MW) in early 2025. The timing of switching on the Komotini plant will also depend on whether and which lignite PPC blocks are phased out in 2025, as the development of all scenarios indicates that their phase-out will depend on their replacement with equivalent units. That is why 2025, as well as the year 2026 following it, are considered the most critical for the adequacy of the system.

According to the ADMIE study, in 2026, depending on the degree and speed of RES penetration, the system will potentially need to be strengthened by another block of natural gas with a capacity of 600-800 MW. Two divisions are expected to compete for this position.

One of the Kopelouzos group in Alexandroupolis (825 MW), which, as was formalized on Thursday, will be carried out with the participation of 51% PPC and 29% DEPA, and the second ELPE in Thessaloniki of the same capacity.

According to an ADMIE study, the last checkpoint chimney will be extinguished in 2028.

In 2034, four blocks of natural gas will be removed from the system, namely Lavrio IV (550 MW) and Komotini (476 MW) PPC, ENTHES (400 MW) ELPE in Thessaloniki and Iron (148 MW) in Viotia. In other words, natural gas will participate in the electricity supply system from 2026 to 2034 with a total capacity of 5,953 MW from 2,478 MW today.

It looks like an oxymoron, but as the penetration of renewables increases, traditional fuels, lignite and natural gas become more and more necessary for the adequacy of the system. This is because RES alone, even when stored with batteries operating for more than two hours, which ADMIE takes into account as an assumption, cannot ensure the adequacy of the system. In fact, the more productive resources enter the system, the more difficult the conditions for the viability of old and new conventional units become, so their operational reinforcement is considered necessary to remain in working order.

The ADMIE study was based on a new methodology approved by ACER, which, in addition to assessing adequacy, must also take into account the economic feasibility of installations. Based on this methodology, new investments are considered in the study only if they are economically feasible, while taking into account the risk of withdrawing old ones that are not economically feasible. The sustainability models for new and existing natural gas installations taken into account in the ADMIE study were “run” by the laboratory of NTUA professor Pantelis Kapros.

According to the ADMIE study, in order to strike a balance between the adequacy and viability of units, the government should find operational support tools for both investments in new natural gas installations and existing ones.

The study takes into account two different scenarios for the evolution of demand from 2023 to 2035: low with demand at the end of the decade at 60,543 GWh without the Crete system (3,636 GWh) and high with demand up to 65,060 GWh in 2035 also without the Crete system (3 976 GWh in this second scenario).

System adequacy from 2027 will be enhanced by 660 MW from the TERNA Energy pumped storage plant in Amfilochia, which is already under construction. Additional hydropower will begin to flow into the system from 01/01/2025 with the commissioning of the Metsovitiko HPP (29 MW), a year later the Mesokhorskaya HPP (160 MW) and the Avlakinskaya HPP (83 MW). from 01.01.2028.

For the system to be safe for a decade, all of the above assumptions of ADMIE must be tested for the OK of new units, on which the planned withdrawal of the old ones depends. The adequacy study will be reviewed based on the new National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) when completed in the first quarter of 2023.