At Brioche Pasquier, an hour’s drive from London, each sourdough bun costs nearly 50% more to produce. From butter to eggs to sugar, most of the ingredients used in this French bakery’s croissants, buns and chocolate muffins have already risen in price due to the soaring commodity prices over the past 12 months, and now there’s another headache associated with them. electricity bills.

This double cost, which consumers immediately feel in their wallets, concerns the cost of living. The Bank of England is waiting for him inflation up 13% this year, a third of British households spend more than 10% of their income on energy, and now rising food prices are exacerbating food poverty.

“It’s a domino effect,” said Brioche Pasquier UK Managing Director Ryan Peters. “We’re going to raise prices a bit for retailers, and unfortunately that’s going to pass on to consumers.” This year, global food prices hit record highs as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deprived the world of staples such as flour and vegetable oils. In July, spending began to decline for the fourth month in a row, but consumer relief is not expected. The reason is that Europe’s food companies are facing expensive energy. And the worst is yet to come as we face cold winter days that will increase the need for heating and power generation.

“Whether it’s coffee roasting or sugar production, the company cares about nothing but rising commodity prices,” said Kona Haki, director of research at commodities trading company ED&F Man. “The worst is yet to come as energy prices rise and I believe this winter will be a game changer.” Suedzucker, Europe’s largest beet sugar producer, said earlier that large increases in raw material, energy and packaging costs offset first-quarter revenue growth. In the UK and Europe, companies making cooking oils from soy, canola and sunflower seeds have slowed production and are moving it to areas with cheaper energy.

The outlook is so bleak that governments are rushing to intervene. Last week, the EU approved a €110 million aid program to support agricultural businesses hit by Ukraine’s energy and fertilizer price spike.