According to a statement sent to HotNews on Monday, economists from the Romanian CFA Association expect a budget deficit of 5.6% in 2024, economic growth of 2.6% this year and public debt at 54% of GDP in the next 12 months. EN

Regarding changes in urban residential real estate prices, 37% of survey participants expect a decline, while 50% of participants expect stability over the next 12 months. Also, 71% of participants believe that current prices are overpriced, and 29% believe that they are priced correctly.

Adrian Codirlasu, CFA – Vice President of the Romanian CFA Association states: “High fiscal uncertainty, as well as the expectation of increased taxation in the context of a consistently high budget deficit, will lead to a significant slowdown in the disinflation process. Thus, the survey participants forecast a decrease in the inflation rate of less than one percentage point in the next 12 months.”

The macroeconomic confidence indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased in December by 9 points to a value of 56.6 points. This situation arose as a result of the growth of both components of the indicator.

The expected inflation rate for the 12-month period (January 2025) decreased compared to the previous year and averaged 5.78%, a value of less than one percentage point compared to the inflation rate recorded in December 2023. Only 68% of participants expect inflation to decline in the next 12 months compared to 88% in the previous year.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, more than 71% of participants expect the lei to depreciate in the next 12 months. Thus, the average expected value for the 6-month horizon is 5.0212 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average expected exchange rate is 5.0781 lei per euro.