Ukrainian forces appear to have repulsed a major attack near Avdiivka (Donetsk region) on Saturday, the first Russian mechanized attack in battalion numbers since late October 2023, when Moscow’s forces began their campaign to capture Avdiivka, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment of the war.

On Sunday, a Ukrainian military official said that Russian forces, including units of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District – TsVO), on Saturday used 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles (IPVs) in a large mechanized by storm near Tonenko.

Geolocation images released on Sunday showed large numbers of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along a road northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka).

The Russian mechanized attack appears to have ended in disaster

The Ukrainian military reported that during the assault, Ukrainian troops destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight enemy BMPs, but failed to break through the Ukrainian front line.

It seems that this is the first recorded case of the participation of units of the 90th tank division in the assaults that took place after the capture of Avdiyivka by Russia.

ISW had previously assessed that units of the 90th Panzer Division, together with other Russian units and formations, likely constituted a significant operational reserve that the Russian military command could use to continue and strengthen the advance west of Avdiivka.

However, elements of the 6th Panzer Regiment appear to have failed in Saturday’s attack near Tonenke, suggesting that parts of Russia’s inactive operational reserve near Avdiivka may be too weakened or unable to sustain Russia’s further westward advance in the short term.

The scale of Saturday’s Russian mechanized assault is significant.

Russian forces have not launched a mechanized attack of this scale since the beginning of Russia’s localized offensive effort to capture Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed nearly 50 Russian tanks and over 100 other armored vehicles on October 19-20, 2023.

What the Institute for the Study of War says

The fact that the Ukrainians were able to defend themselves from the assault on March 30, especially near Avdiivka, where they were forced to quickly retreat to new defensive positions after the loss of the city, is a positive indicator of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against future large-scale Russian assaults and the planned Russian offensive operation for the summer of 2024 year, notes ISW.

Ukrainian officials rightly continue to warn about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against an expected Russian offensive this summer amid ammunition shortages, limited manpower and delayed Western aid, the source said.

Ukrainian forces may have had to use a significant amount of military equipment to defend against a Russian attack near Tonenke, underscoring Russia’s ability to launch attacks that force Ukraine to expend exaggerated shares of its already limited stockpile of military equipment and personnel to defend itself.

Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to successfully defend against a large-scale Russian attack in a particularly critical area of ​​the front, despite the challenges it faces, shows that Ukrainian forces can achieve significant results on the battlefield if they are properly equipped.

Perhaps the Avdiivka district of the Donetsk region is a priority for the Russian command. The readiness of the Russian military command to attack a tank battalion near Avdiivka shows that this assault was a priority.

The Russian command may focus its offensive operation, planned for the late spring-summer of 2024, on the western part of the Donetsk region, hoping to increase the steady but small advance of Russian troops in this direction.

Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Russian forces are massing forces along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast, but ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely to be able to launch a large-scale coordinated offensive operation. only in one operational direction at a time due to Russia’s own personnel and planning limitations.