Discussions surrounding possible presidential elections in Ukraine began after Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksiy Gontsearenko told a local TV channel that Zelensky ordered elections to be held on March 31, 2024. The information was not officially confirmed, and later the President of Ukraine stated that “it is irresponsible to talk about holding elections in wartime.”

HotNews.ro talked to MP Oleksiy Goncharenko, as well as some experts from Ukraine, to find out how important this topic is for Ukrainian society in the context of the war with Russia.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the 2019 presidential election, defeating former President Petro Poroshenko in the second round, with 73.22% of the vote. The term of office is five years.

Oleksiy Gontsearenko, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Kyiv: “If the elections were held today, Zelensky would have the best chance”

“Such a draft decision was in the Office of the President. This is a fact. Moreover, this is not only about information from my sources, it can be traced through public statements of representatives of the government of Ukraine, in particular the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba.

But my sources say that such a decision was made and not simply considered by the president. When I reported on this decision of Zelenskyi, there was a big discussion in Ukrainian society, in the mass media, but the discussion was limited to the fact that this decision will be wrong. I think the government should have heard this and adjusted its plans,” Honcharenko told HotNews.ro.

Instead, on Monday, in his daily speech, Zelenskyi said:

“This is a moment of defense, a battle on which the fate of the state and people depends, not a farce that only Russia expects from Ukraine. I think now is not the time for elections. It is necessary to unite, and not separate in disputes and other priorities.”

In fact, several politicians and experts in Ukraine argue that holding elections in the face of daily attacks by Russia would be irrational and strain society.

“The legislation prohibits the organization of elections in wartime, but theoretically the legislation can be changed. But there are big organizational problems: it is not clear how you can organize the voting, if we are talking about ensuring the safety of people at the polling stations, in the conditions of a Russian attack.

Also, how to organize the voting process for people on the front lines and refugees currently living in Europe and elsewhere?

And the third reason – why? Now in Ukraine it is a legitimate government.

Given that I am an opposition deputy, I can say that in the conditions we are in, we should not fight each other, but unite to defeat the common enemy.

That is, the elections do not make sense, they would create additional threats, would devastate the society, and, besides, there is no need,” said deputy Gontsearenko.

He also says that the fate of the next election will be affected by developments on the front, which no one knows about at the moment.

“I can express my personal point of view – I do not want Zelensky to be the president anymore, he even promised to go to the elections for only one mandate. But if he runs for office, that is his right. If the elections were held today, Zelensky would probably have the best chances,” Gontsearenko added.

Deputy Oleksiy Hontsearenko. PHOTO: Sachel Babbar / Zuma Press / Profimedia

Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”: “The idea of ​​elections is being attacked by Russia through its agents and is starting to sound in the media space”

Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Global Studies Center in Kyiv, said that there is more consensus in Ukrainian society that elections should not be held during martial law.

“If we look at the latest sociological research on this topic, only 20% of respondents agree with the statement that it is possible to organize presidential elections in a state of war. I mean, only 20% and that’s it. In principle, for the most part, those who want the organization of elections advocate that they be organized after the end of the war.

Moreover, this topic is now present in the media space of our country, but it cannot be said that the dominant opinion is that elections should be organized at any cost.

In addition, on September 18, more than 100 public organizations in Ukraine signed a letter to the president, as well as to the government in general, stating that elections should not be held under martial law.

We also understand what Russia can do on election day when there will be crowds of people at the polling stations. One missile strike is enough, and the elections will be in jeopardy. After that, people simply did not go out to vote, questioning the representativeness of these elections.

I am not talking about the fact that there are several million refugees who are outside Ukraine, there are several million military personnel who simply will not have the opportunity to vote. And international monitoring – almost since the beginning of the war, all international organizations have left Ukraine.

All UN and OSCE missions come to Ukraine for a few days or a few hours and leave. We understand that the idea of ​​elections is thrown in by Russia through its agencies and begins to spread in the media space, which creates a certain turbulence,” said Gonchar.

The expert also notes that it is difficult to assess people’s electoral preferences today.

“Under conditions of Russian aggression, political life came to a standstill. There is no party activity in public space. As for the authority of political parties, it was not very high. The rating of the “Servant of the People” party is approaching zero, but from the very beginning it was clear that this is not a party, but an election project.

In wartime conditions, despite the fact that there is enough criticism of the current president and his administration, no one is talking about the need to hold elections very quickly. But there is an understanding that this is a war, and such things are not organized during a war,” Honchar said.

Tymofiy Livutin, head of the “European Solidarity” faction in the Chornomorsk city council of the Odesa region: “If people come to power who will then expose their “hidden friendship with Russia”?”

Instead, the local deputy from the city of Chornomorsk, Odesa region, Tymofiy Livutin, who represents the party of ex-president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, believes that there are voices in Ukrainian society that would like changes, but only after the restoration of peace.

“Society is divided: there are people who fully support the direction chosen by the president and believe that no one can be better than Volodymyr Zelenskyi and his party “Servant of the People” and that no one else should lead the country.

The second part of society demands changes. Some military personnel even told me personally that they do not see how the conflict can be resolved (the war with the Russian Federation – no) if Volodymyr Oleksandrovich (no – Zelensky) remains in the position of the country’s president, and the “Servant of the People” remains in the majority.

They do not see the results of their work to provide the army. Thus, in their opinion, the decision will be elections. This is if we are talking about society.

If we talk about the Verkhovna Rada and the political arena, it is clear that the minority parties want elections. Deputies from the “Servants of the People” side are in a comfortable position and have a majority. If they do not have enough votes, they almost always find two or three missing votes and advance one or another project. The majority is concentrated around the presidential party,” Livutin said.

At the same time, Livutin admits that Zelensky does not have many competitors now.

“I am not a fan of Zelensky and in many cases I do not support his policies, but to be honest, as a resident of Ukraine, I do not see a suitable alternative to him. I am the president of the faction of the European Solidarity party, but in the case of our leader Petro Poroshenko, I do not yet see global prospects for his victory,” said the local deputy.

Moreover, according to him, some possible political changes would even be dangerous for Ukraine if “hidden friends” of Russia came to the helm of the country.

“There are unconfirmed rumors that Zaluzhny (Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army) may participate in the elections, but this is said by some romantics who do not understand that those soldiers who are talented at the front and in leading the troops can turn out to be completely talentless politicians.

The common position of the people and all pro-Ukrainian parties is that peace must come, and Ukraine must return all its occupied territories within the borders of 1991. But no one knows how to do it.

And here there is a danger: if people come to power who will later show off their “hidden friendship with Russia” and will be able to reach a temporary reconciliation with Russia through diplomatic efforts, then for an ordinary Ukrainian who perceives politics less, what would this mean is victory in any what a case

But if we talk about the size of the state, I think it will be our defeat, because in fact this conflict will only be frozen. From my subjective point of view, the exit is only by military means and only with the support of our Western partners. I think that a temporary truce will even be concluded, all this time will allow the Russians to better prepare for the further seizure of Ukrainian territory,” Livutin also stated.