Russia has managed to overcome the consequences of the sanctions introduced against it, producing more missiles, tanks and ammunition than before the invasion of Ukraine, which causes serious concern in Kyiv and its Western partners, writes The New York Times with reference to several Ukrainian officials and the West.

According to US officials, the introduction of sanctions forced Russia to dramatically slow down the production of missiles and other military equipment for at least six months after the start of the “special military operation” on February 24 last year.

But the same sources say that the pace of Russian arms production began to pick up again late last year, as officials in Moscow began preparing for a transition to a military economy as early as the summer of 2022, after it became clear that Ukraine would not surrender quickly.

The timing coincided with a change in the overall strategy of the Russian military as they moved from modern mechanized attacks to systematic and sustained bombing of any target they wished to capture. It was this strategy that ensured Russia’s capture of the cities of Severodonetsk and Lischansk in late June and early July, respectively.

A defense official, cited by the NYT on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject, however, now says Russia may produce 200 tanks a year, down from a pre-war peak of 100.

Western officials also believe that Russia is on track to increase production of artillery shells to two million a year, doubling its pre-war production capacity.

As a result of these efforts, Russia now produces more ammunition than the United States and Europe combined.

Kusti Salm, an official at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, told the NYT that he estimates that overall Russia’s ammunition production is now 7 times that of the West.

Russia produces ammunition cheaper than NATO countries

This situation is partly due to the fact that the cost of production in Russia is much lower than in Western countries, due to the fact that Moscow sacrifices the safety and quality of workers in order to produce weapons more cheaply.

According to Salm’s estimates, a 155 mm projectile costs Russia about $600 to produce, while in the West the cost of producing a comparable 152 mm projectile is $5,000 to $6,000.

However, Russia faces some disadvantages. For example, it does not have a huge stockpile of missiles, although again, in the case of certain types, it has more units than at the start of the war, according to sources cited by the NYT.

“In certain areas, they (the Russians) were able to significantly increase production,” said Dmytro Alperovych, an international security expert and president of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington think tank.

For weapons that require millions of units of a particular component, export controls imposed by the West could even freeze production. But the chips needed to create several hundred missiles could be transported across the border in a backpack, making it much easier to evade sanctions.

U.S. officials say they can slow, but not stop, Russia from secretly obtaining components needed to build missiles, and that it is unrealistic to think Moscow will not respond to Washington’s restrictions.

How Moscow is trying to bypass Western sanctions

The US Department of Commerce claims that one of the ways Russia circumvents sanctions is by importing components to third countries and then delivering them to Russia.

“Because the restrictions had a real impact, the Russian government didn’t just shrug and say, ‘You caught us, we screwed up.’ They became more and more creative in their attempts to get around [a sancțiunilor]” explains Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary for export controls at the Commerce Department in Washington.

Indeed, the spokesperson of the Group of Ukrainian Forces in the South of the country, Nataliya Gumenyuk, warned just a day ago that the Russian army is not currently carrying out mass bombing of all Ukrainian regions, since, most likely, it is stockpiling missiles. in order to carry out attacks in autumn and winter.

However, as far as Russian missile production is concerned, the increase in capacity may not be enough to meet the needs of its armed forces.

Not everything is rosy for the Russian army either

A Western official told Reuters last week that Russia fired between 10 million and 11 million artillery shells into Ukraine last year. This would mean that even if Russia increased its annual production capacity to two million units, it would still not be able to restore its stockpiles to pre-war levels.

“If you went through 10 million rounds last year and you’re in the middle of a war and you can only produce 1 or 2 million rounds a year, I don’t think you’re in a very strong position,” he said.

As for tank production, he gave the same figure of 200 units that Russia will be able to produce now, but noted that this does not even come close to covering Moscow’s losses.

“If you lose 2,000 tanks, it will take a decade to get back to where you started,” the official said, adding that Russia also lost 4,000 armored fighting vehicles, more than 100 aircraft and 270,000 soldiers, including those killed and wounded.

The head of the Czech army warns the West to prepare for a prolonged confrontation with Russia

On Wednesday, General Karel Rehka, the chief of staff of the Czech Republic’s armed forces, joined a chorus of officials who argued that the West should increase weapons production given the security threats posed by Russia.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, the Czech general says that he believes that, in general, “none of the sides has the opportunity to achieve the stated goals in the near future.”

“It won’t take a few weeks, it might take longer. And it is important to support Ukrainians for a long time to come,” he emphasized, referring to Kyiv’s achievement of military goals.

As for the increase in weapons production, he says it makes sense from a military point of view, “because we got a little sleep.”

“We underfunded and did not pay enough attention to our defense, not only us in the Czech Republic, but also the collective alliance of the West,” he claims.

In fact, both the United States and some of its European NATO partners are already making serious efforts in this direction.

Vladimir Putin has already prepared for an “eternal war” with the West

In fact, journalists from The Guardian wrote this spring that members of Russia’s cultural and political elite would be glum if Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, hinted at a party in December that Russia’s war with the West would last “very , for a very long time” and “things will become much more complicated.”

One of the guests of the party told The Guardian that Peksov’s toast darkened the atmosphere, as many of those present privately declared that they were against the war in Ukraine.

“It was unpleasant to listen to his speech. It was clear that he warned that the war will remain with us and that we need to prepare for a long journey,” he said on condition of anonymity.

“Putin practically stopped talking about any specific goal of the war. It does not offer a vision of what future victory might look like. War does not have a clear beginning and predictable end,” Maksym Trudolyubov, a political scientist from the Wilson Center, said in March.

And a Western diplomat in Moscow told The Guardian at the time that Putin was preparing the Russian public for “a war that never ends.”

The diplomat noted that it is unclear whether Putin can accept defeat in this conflict, as he does not seem to “understand how to lose.”

The diplomat also recalled that the Russian president was an agent of the KGB, and they were taught to always pursue their goals and not to overestimate them.

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