There is a 99.9% certainty that Russia will abandon the UN agreement on the safe passage of grain through the Black Sea next month because it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said, Reuters reports.

Last July, the United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative with Moscow and Kyiv to help resolve the global food crisis exacerbated by the Russian invasion and blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Moscow has threatened not to extend the deal beyond July 18 unless a number of demands are met, including the removal of barriers to Russian grain and fertilizer exports.

Next month, Russia will withdraw from the grain export agreement

The Black Sea Export Agreement also allows for the safe export of ammonia – an important ingredient in nitrate-based fertilizers – but no shipments have been made under this initiative.

Russia is pushing to resume ammonia supplies through a pipeline that runs through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa, which has been idle since last year.

Ambassador General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Olga Trofimtseva, said that the Russian ammonia producer “Uralchim” has found an alternative way and does not need to export ammonia through Odessa. “Grain Corridor. 99.9%, Russia will give it up in July,” Trofimtseva wrote in Telegram.

Dmytro Konyaev, CEO of Uralchem, said last month that the Odesa pipeline could be replaced by a specialized ammonia terminal, the first stage of construction of which should be completed on the Taman Peninsula in Russia by the end of 2023.

Kyiv says it has a plan B

This month, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi said that Kyiv has a plan B if Russia decides to abandon the Black Sea Agreement.

According to him, the government has created a special insurance fund in the amount of about 547 million dollars for companies whose ships enter Ukrainian Black Sea ports under the new agreement.

Ukraine also said it could export grain through its small ports on the Danube, as well as through its western border with the European Union.

Trofimtseva, a former acting agriculture minister, said Ukraine needed to prepare, but expressed doubt about how much the Export Insurance Fund would help.

Recalling the Russian invasion, she said: “On this summer’s day, we should already be thinking about winter. We are entering the second military winter, and I think it may be much more difficult than the last. From all points of view.”