Those who bet on the election walk Erdogan today they are refuted. But just as those who expected victory were refuted. Kilicdaroglu in the first round of elections on the 14th^her Maybe.

Elections for… the heart, the 2023 presidential election — the first in Turkish history to go to a second round after no candidate won more than 50% on the first Sunday — were far (in percentage terms, and not only) from what we have seen in the recent past.

It is reminded that in the previous presidential elections in 2018 and 2014, Erdogan won with 52.6% and 51.8% respectively, except for the first round.not in b.

With about 98% of the vote now counted (although some objections are obviously to be expected), the 69-year-old Turkish leader appears to be seeking re-election for the next five years as president with 52.1% and about 27 votes. million votes. On the other hand, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu is trailing with 47.9% (improving 44.9% in the first round) and about 25 million votes.

Both on May 14 and today, the politically “rival” Turkish news agencies Anadolu and ANKA (the former is state-owned and denounced as “Erdogan”, the latter is close to the Turkish opposition) started from different starting points of interest rates in the results. flow… before you start to converge course.

The politically weak-willed Erdogan eventually prevailed, but by a rather small margin for his data, extending his already 20-year tenure in power (2003-2023) for another five years.

Wear is a given

However, attrition is now a given for him and his faction. Erdogan’s Islamist-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) looks back to the days when it ruled Turkey’s National Assembly on its own without needing the backing of other factions. However, those days are gone forever. And this is for years.

In the last parliamentary elections two weeks ago, the AKP elected 268 deputies out of 600, with the result that its share fell from 42.5% to 35.6%. For reference, this 35.6% is the second worst percentage the AKP has received in parliamentary polls in Turkey, after 34.3% in November 2002.

As for Erdogan himself, this year he made it to the second round of the presidential election for the first time, while all previous times he won quite confidently from the first Sunday. The 69-year-old Turkish leader won again, but not quite with the percentage (more than 55%) he would have liked.

Majority, with an eye on the next five years, he can bet not on his winning game, but on the defeat of the opposition and the potentially divisive tendencies that this defeat may cause in the coming period within the opposition National Alliance of the Six. “.

Kilicdaroglu missed his chance

74 year old Kemal Kilicdarogludespite his good performance (44.9% and the roughly 48% he received in the first and second rounds of the presidential elections respectively are all-time highs for the Turkish opposition), everything now shows that missed a (unique?) chance to overthrow Erdogan.

The decisive post-election bet for the Turkish opposition will no longer be the political salvation of Kılıçdaroglu himself as a leader candidate, but, above all, the preservation of its cohesion, drawing on the last good ones (but not enough to win). performances and bet on new leadership figures such as Ekrem Imamoglu (mostly) and Mansour Javas (secondarily) or even her Canan Kaftangioglu.

Another election derby in Türkiye will 2024 municipal electionstherefore, the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, which are currently controlled by the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), are also expected to be tried.

Until then, of course, much will be done not only on the front of the opposition, which remains to be seen if it manages to maintain unity, but also on the front of Erdogan’s ruling “People’s Alliance”, which will be called in the near future to cope with a hot (to an explosive degree) ) her potatoes economy. and his refugee/immigrant…