Race for your next head NATO peaks. But this is a race that is mostly run in the dark and there are no favorites yet.

OUR Jens Stoltenberg, the Norwegian secretary-general of the transatlantic military alliance, is due to step down at the end of September after nine years in office. Many members of the alliance would like its succession to be decided during the NATO summit in Lithuania in mid-July or even earlier.

This does not give the 31 NATO member states, from the United States to the newest member, Finland and Turkey, too little time to build the consensus needed to choose a new leader. They could also ask Stoltenberg to extend his term for a fourth time.

Whoever takes the reins will take over at a critical moment, as they have a dual challenge: to keep allies united in support of Ukraine and to avoid any escalation that would bring NATO into direct war with Russia.

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace expressed interest in the position last week. But as some governments push for NATO’s first female Secretary General, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is also emerging as a strong candidate.

Despite the high importance of the role, the selection is extremely non-transparent and is carried out through consultations. These consultations continue until all NATO members reach a consensus.

Jamie C, a former senior NATO official who has been with the alliance for 38 years, said leaders will be looking for an experienced politician, communicator and diplomat. “Keeping the family together, keeping everyone happy at all times, being in touch with all allies to make sure you understand their concerns is an important part of the job,” said Xi, who now works at think tank Chatham House.

Wallace and Fredricksen

Many diplomats believe that Wallace has every chance to take this post, as he is highly respected in the alliance. However, the desire of some to have the chosen woman plays against him. Many would also prefer a former prime minister or president to give NATO’s “boss” political influence at the highest level. Stoltenberg, 64, was the Prime Minister of Norway.

And some, especially France, want someone from a European Union country, hoping for closer cooperation between NATO and the EU.

Frederiksen meets all of the above criteria. Although she says she is not a candidate, she does not deny that she is interested in the position. NATO diplomats say the possibility is being seriously considered behind the scenes.

Frederiksen’s name first appeared in an article in the Norwegian newspaper VG last month, and there was a stir when the White House announced that she would be visiting US President Joe Biden in early June.

While this position traditionally goes to a European, any serious candidate needs the approval of Washington, NATO’s dominant power. A source familiar with US thinking said the Biden administration does not support either candidate.

A State Department spokesman said “it’s too early to speculate about who the United States will back.”

Frederiksen, Denmark’s youngest prime minister in 2019, was praised for her handling of the crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic and was re-elected to a second term last year. However, she will have to step down as prime minister, which political observers say will bring her fragile government to the brink of collapse.

And campaigning for a seat in NATO will not be easy.

Her country was falling short of NATO’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP. Denmark is at 1.38%, although Frederiksen has vowed to accelerate efforts towards the target. If Frederiksen assumes this post, she will become the third successive head of NATO from a Scandinavian country.

Other possible candidates

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of Germany and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland also featured in discussions between diplomats and in media reports.

But diplomats say some NATO members see Kallas as too “aggressive” towards Russia, Berlin wants von der Leyen to stay on the commission, and Freeland faces serious obstacles as a non-European from a country seen as a tailwind in defense spending.

Other names often mentioned are Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. But Rutte insisted that he did not need this post. And Sanchez should run in the general election later this year.

Some diplomats also suspect that many of the candidates being discussed may be unacceptable to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is widely expected to be re-elected on Sunday and has no hesitation in blocking NATO consensus.

Türkiye, together with Hungary, prevents Sweden from joining NATO.

The apparent lack of broadly supported candidates raises the possibility that Stoltenberg’s term could be extended again, possibly until the next NATO summit in 2024.