The last ship with the Ukrainian flakes will sail during the day from her port Ukrainian V Black Seaunder an agreement allowing the safe passage of foodstuffs taken out of the country the day before Russia decide whether to terminate – or not – its power due to obstacles to the export of its own grain and fertilizers.

An agreement between the two warring states was reached in July 2022, brokered by the UN and Turkey, to avert the risk of a global food crisis exacerbated by Russian military incursions into Ukraine. It was originally agreed that it would last 120 days.

Both Ukraine and Russia were among the world’s largest grain exporters before the outbreak of the armed conflict.

Moscow agreed to extend the deal for another 120 days in November. But in March, he limited its extension to 60 days, that is, until tomorrow, Thursday, May 18. He indicated that he would terminate the agreement if the conditions set by it were not met, in particular, to remove restrictions on its own exports of agricultural products.

“There are still many open questions on the part of the agreement that worries us. Now we need to make a decision,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, according to Russian media.

Last week, officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN met in Istanbul to negotiate a deal, the Safe Grain and Food Export Initiative from Ukrainian ports, or the Black Sea Grain Initiative. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Tuesday that “contacts are ongoing at various levels,” adding that “we are obviously in a delicate phase.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said last week that he thought the agreement would be extended for another two months.

Although food and fertilizer exports are not subject to Western sanctions, Russia emphasizes that restrictions on payments, transport and insurance have much the same effect.

The US has been rejecting Moscow’s protests, and US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said last week that grain and fertilizer exports were “same, if not higher” than before the invasion.

Officials from the four contracting parties participate in the Joint Coordinating Center (JCC) in Istanbul, which is responsible for overseeing the implementation of the agreement. KKS approves routes and is responsible for checking them. After May 4, he did not give any permission.

Licensed vessels are inspected by the State Customs Committee near Turkey, proceed to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, pick up cargo, then return to Turkish territorial waters and undergo inspection again.

The last licensed route leaves today. Another ship is returning to Turkey, five more ships are awaiting inspection in Turkish territorial waters.

In a letter to other CIS parties, Russia said it would not approve routes after May 18, the expiration date of the agreement, to avoid “commercial damage” and “security risks.” Given this caveat, it is unlikely that shipowners and insurance companies will continue to guarantee Ukrainian grain exports unless Moscow agrees to extend the deal.

For several days in October, when Russia temporarily withdrew from the agreement, the remaining three parties continued to implement it.

To date, the Initiative has exported some 30 million tons of grains and other food products, including 600,000 metric tons of grain delivered by United Nations World Food Program ships to assist countries such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Yemen .

^{Source: APE-MEB, Reuters}