twenty four hours before elections V TürkiyeBrussels is watching closely, but also from afar, what will be at stake in the ballot box and whether voters will take the side of Kemalism or Tayyip Erdogan he will be able to ensure his stay in power by legitimate or illegitimate means.

The EU calls for a “transparent and inclusive” electoral competition, with competent Commissioner Peter Stano noting on the one hand that “Turkey is an important partner for the EU”, but also underlining the need for a process based on democratic standards and all parties to respect the rule of law and the will of the citizens.

A country with almost 85 million people, which has received the status of a candidate for EU membership. in 1999 is trying to find a balance between the democratic West and an increasingly authoritarian bias, with some European diplomats believing that Tayyip Erdogan’s stay may have meant a familiar tread on the one hand, with ups and downs and unpredictable behavior on the other. Others argue that the replacement and coming to power of Kemal Kilindaroglu will mark the beginning of a new era away from “authoritarianism”. He doesn’t expect wand changes to be easy. An unstable government formation with strong opposition will tie the hands of Kilintzaroglu, who – if elected – will be asked to give tangible signs of his willingness to cooperate with the EU. A European source, explaining that “Ankara needs to understand that not everything is a deal. If they want a better partnership with the Union, they will have to act on their own, and at the moment this is not happening.”

‘Change is possible’ in international politics if Erdogan loses

For his part, Jan Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Foundation and executive director of its Brussels office, believes that if President Erdogan and the AKP lose power, “it is likely that some things in Turkey’s foreign policy will change, which will affect Washington and Brussels. Manner matters. The rhetoric from Ankara is likely to be different and less inflammatory. Professionals will regain their political influence in key areas, including NATO and regional security. More orthodox monetary policy management and a more independent central bank will reassure international investors. Probably some kind of dispute resolution over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400s and Sweden’s upcoming NATO membership. This will cause a special resonance in the US Congress, where criticism of Ankara is especially strong. Turkey is likely to take a more multilateral approach to energy development and political dialogue in the Eastern Mediterranean.”

On the other hand, the issue of immigration remains open and relevant because the needs have changed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it remains unknown where and how financial support for Turkey will be found, and the results of any assistance are unknown. Managing the customs union issue as well as visas is also sailing through uncharted waters with the data available. Partial alignment of Turkey with EU trade policy. in relation to third countries, it makes one think and makes experienced European officials advocate for a functional dispute resolution mechanism, as well as a technical expansion of the scope of the customs union agreement.

Whoever wins the Turkish duel, the first half of the new government is expected to be difficult due to the country’s economic collapse and inflation estimated to reach nearly 47% later this year, with many not ruling out that the IMF will again at the door, which could also influence any possible attempt at a rapprochement between the EU and Turkey.

^{Source: APE-MEB}