The possibility of a leadership change in Turkey after the May elections, when Kemal Kilicdaroglu replaces Recep Tayyip Erdogan as president, is now being taken seriously in Paris, with the French press calling Erdogan a “two-faced sultan” and a “Turkish Machiavelli.” analysts to find out how Turkey’s relations with the EU could develop in the event of its defeat.

“Erdogan’s victory would be Putin’s victory,” Mark Pierini, a fellow at the Carnegie European Institution and former EU ambassador to Ankara, told Le Monde newspaper, noting that the war in Ukraine gave a good idea of ​​the double game. Erdogan.

“If Turkish voters manage to oust Erdogan from his presidential palace, it will be a major geopolitical turning point,” says former Spanish foreign minister Aranza González, noting that the economic crisis, the chaotic management of the recent earthquake and one-party electorate fatigue against an increasingly authoritarian government give hope to the opposition coalition.

“If Erdogan loses and accepts defeat, that will change a lot,” said a French diplomatic source, who believes the EU will adjust its response depending on the degree of “democratic renewal” announced by the opposition.

However, as noted, no one is thinking about resuming negotiations on joining the EU.

According to Le Monde, the EU could offer to modernize its long-standing customs union with Turkey by expanding it to services.

“Things will remain difficult, but the climate will become calmer,” Pierini assesses, referring to the predictable difficulties regarding Syria.

The financial newspaper Les Echos, for its part, reports that Brussels and European capitals are waiting for the results of the Turkish elections in the hope that the opposition will win. However, Menjamen Couto, a researcher at the Delors Institute, believes that “whether Erdogan remains in power or the opposition wins, this will not fundamentally change the relationship between Turkey and the European Union, at least at the initial stage.”

“For Europe, Turkey’s accession to the European Union is not officially buried, but it is not on the agenda either. Whoever wins, we are unlikely to get out of this ambiguity, ”the publication quotes the words of a diplomatic adviser to a major European capital.

“The European Union could consider revising the customs union, easing the visa policy for Turks, or even including Turkey in gas projects in the Eastern Mediterranean,” said the Scandinavian minister, who was also quoted by the newspaper.

However, according to analyst Luigi Scageri, “Even if the opposition wins on Sunday, Europeans should not expect Turkey to behave as before,” because, as he notes, “the country is richer than twenty years before and stronger militarily and diplomatically.” According to him, “joining the European Union may no longer be so important for Ankara,” while “a successful Turkey outside the European Union is much easier to imagine than before.”

The view that the parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14 in Turkey could end the twenty-year rule of this “two-faced sultan” is expressed by Figaro, noting that the West, while avoiding openly supporting one or another candidate, they hope that Erdogan’s successor will turn reversing the authoritarian drift of the country.

The newspaper sees the stakes high, asking the following questions: “What would be the geopolitical implications of change in Turkey as a new world order emerges in which liberal democracies stand against the despotic anti-model that China and Russia embody? Could the West finally get rid of this duplicitous sultan, this unwieldy ally who deftly moves between these two worlds to play a role on the international chessboard that far exceeds the real weight of his country?

Figaro places the blame on European countries such as France and Austria, which in the past, he notes, made promises to the Turks of a European perspective that they knew they could not keep.

“Dreaming of himself as the new Mohammed the Conqueror, Erdogan flatters the nationalist streak of his people and promises to restore their pride, shaking old dreams of empire,” the French newspaper emphasizes, referring to the Turkish president’s policy in Syria. Eastern Mediterranean, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh, where, as he notes, “as a formidable general, he kindles or kindles fires wherever he can to expand Turkey’s influence.” He also criticizes his policy “in Libya, the Mediterranean or Cyprus to get his hands on hydrocarbons”, his involvement “in rifts opened by the Russians or Western allies”, his actions against his NATO interests, and the exploitation of migrants.

In an analysis titled “Machiavelli’s Turk”, Figaro finally describes his attitude towards the war in Ukraine, noting that he managed to use his position to maintain some legitimacy at all costs, convincing the West that his strategic value outweighed the betrayals. The West, the French newspaper concluded, clearly hopes that the election results will signal the sultan’s departure and offer them a more accommodating and pro-Western partner.

Source: RES-IPE