After 20 years in office (2003–2023) Recep Tayyip Erdogan he now faces “the biggest electoral challenge” of his political career. At least that’s what FT reporters Andrew England and Adam Sampson claim, taking the campaign tide from Constantinople just 24 hours before next Sunday’s election.

For a politician like him – now 69 years old – Erdoganwho had previously, prior to 2002, been subject to restrictions as a member of banned parties (such as Evimerias/Refah, Aretis/Fazilet and Ethnikis Sotirias/SSP), even having made several months of transition from prison in 1999 on charges of inciting religious hatred , the “challenge” must be literally too big to be considered the “biggest”.

The risk of Erdogan’s defeat

Erdogan really faces the loss of the presidential post in the upcoming elections elections her May 14. At least, this is what follows from the analyzes in the international press. For my part, Mr. Economist he will go beyond press coverage by clearly taking a stance in favor of the Turkish opposition in the run-up to May 14th. “Erdogan must go. Save democracy. Vote!“, – we read on the front page of the last issue of the weekly British magazine.

For the record, it may be worth noting that this is not the first time that major foreign media have openly supported Erdogan’s opponent. They did something similar The newspaper “New York Times in an editorial in June 2018 (headlined “Is Erdogan in Turkey Time?”) and later in support of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidacy. Muharrem Ince. But Ince was defeated in the 2018 presidential election and now, five years later, he is running for president again… this time against Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the CHP, from which he has since resigned.

By the way, supporters of Erdogan Justice and Development Party (AKP) convey a different picture from Ankara, expressing an assessment that Erdogan can prevail, perhaps even from the first round, i.e. gaining over 50% the following Sunday to refute Western estimates to the contrary.

Opposing camps

However, public opinion polls overwhelmingly favor the presidential candidate from the opposition “National Alliance” of the Six, Kemal Kilicdarogluwhom he intends to support in the race for the presidency and the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party – HDP.

Will the Turkish opposition’s 6+1 group be able to mobilize the voters needed to see 74-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu become president against Erdoğan? As for this, so far there are only estimates and … conflicting expectations. The waters of the current pre-election period in Turkey are, after all, rather uncharted, as it is a dual electoral contest (presidential and parliamentary) in which two unprecedented electoral “alliances” of a total of eleven parties clash, with the addition of smaller ones as support for one (Erdogan) or another (Kılıçdaroğlu) presidential candidates. And this is without taking into account the other two presidential candidates (Muharrem Ince, Sinan Ogan) with the support of other own political forces.

The “People’s Alliance” under Erdogan has four parties in its ranks (AKP, MHP, BBP, YRP), which become five if its extremes are included HUDA PAR who participate without actual participation, while some other factions (DYP, DSP, Büyük Türkiye, Yeni Dünya) also supported Erdoğan’s presidential candidacy.

On the other hand, the “Alliance of Nations” under the leadership of Kılıçdaroğlu has six parties in its ranks (CHP, AI, Saadet, DP, DEVA, He will come), while the Kurds/pro-Kurds also supported Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy for the presidency. HDP who is running in this election under the auspices of the eco/left Yeshil Sol Party/YSP.

Now the bet is on Erdogan to hold on to the presidency by overcoming yet another electoral test, perhaps the last of his political career.

Election promises of change

The bet on the opposition, on the other hand, is to succeed in toppling Erdoğan… by making changes.

It is indicative that we wrote in “K” in March last year about the “anti-Erdogan agenda” of the opposition: “an agenda of reversal, overturning and cancellation, that is, all those “sufferings” that Erdogan’s entourage has brought in recent years: in the system of government of Turkey (restoration of the presidential-parliamentary democracy abolished by Erdogan), in the economy (avoiding any “unorthodox” versions of Erdogan), in foreign policy (“peace in the country, peace in the world”: the new/old Kemalist motto put forward by the opposition), in relations with West (improvement of ties experienced in recent years) and in justice (restoration of the independence of institutions within Turkish borders)”.

“What happens when a Turkish (incumbent) president loses an election? Nobody knows,” writes Reuben Silverman in Foreign Policy magazine. Indeed, since the first presidential elections in Turkey (with the direct election of the president by the people) in 2014, Erdogan has not lost …

What if he loses?

But is it time for the Turkish leader to lose? And if so, what exactly will happen next?

The memories of the events in the USA are still fresh (6^her January 2021) and in Brazil (8^her January 2023), the question arises whether the day after the election, angry supporters of Erdogan could not have also taken to the streets of Turkey, casting doubt on the election results. When the AKP, then-candidate Binali Yildirim, lost in 2019 Ekrem Imamoglu Istanbul City Hall (where Istanbul and Erdogan himself began their mayoral career in the 1990s), Erdogan’s entourage was quick to dispute the result…by arranging another poll…however, this move backfired as he again lost, and indeed by a larger margin.

What will happen in the coming weeks if Erdogan is defeated in the elections? Analysts/researchers such as Evangelos Aretaios from ELIAMEPexpect a period of instability in the neighborhood soon.

Are there voices within the AKP that could maintain a veneer in the face of threatening post-election extremism? Mister. virtuous he highlights, referring to “K”, such factors as Ibrahim Kalin And Hulusi Akar who could, in his estimation, possibly play such a role as being more “rational” than the others.

Pre-election tensions – Post-election instability

However, Turkey in recent years under Erdogan has experienced extreme polarization and tension (Gezi/2013, coup/2016), conflicts (with the PKK in the period 2015/2016) and many deadly terrorist attacks (in Ankara in 2015 and 2015). ). and etc.). Can he return to a path of extreme tension after the election?

However, judging by the episodes of the current pre-election period (stones against Imamoglu in Erzurum, verbal warnings from Kılıçdaroğlu about the threat of provocations on the night before the elections, veiled and implicit “threats” to Soylu and Bahceli, the high tones of Erdogan himself, declaring that he will not forget those who was in front of him), then yes, the future is erased, terribly sharpened in a flammable environment …