If Turkish will finally confirm most of the polls and show the way out to their president Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming elections, this will be largely due to the fact that the economic prosperity they initially had after the election of the Islamist Justice and Development Party two decades ago will be shaken.

The vote on May 14, timed to coincide with the centenary of the Republic of Turkey, was the biggest test for Erdogan. Most polls show that he is still trailing the opposition candidate. Kemal Kilicdarogluwho intends to change his unorthodox economic policy.

According to foreign media and international analysts, Erdogan’s popular popularity has waned in recent years as his policy of lowering interest rates amid soaring inflation triggered a series of currency crises and a deepening cost-of-living crisis. This will be another case of the famous “It’s economics, dumbassagainst Bill Clinton.

Reject

The decline began earlier, around 2013, after a decade of rapid growth and prosperity under Erdogan and the AKP.

Then, unprecedented nationwide protests against his government led to a prolonged crackdown on civil liberties. At the same time, the global market liquidity slump has left Turkey and other emerging markets underfunded.

Starting in 2013, foreign investors began to dump Turkish assets, eventually leaving the currency, credit and debt markets under tight state control in the emerging market economies that were once a star among Western fund managers.

“In the past, Erdogan was able to convey to his supporters. But the economic crisis was devastating. His supporters still love him and still love him, but they were unhappy that they had to pay the price for it,” Seda Demiralp, head of the department of international relations at Istanbul Isik University, told Reuters.

Mr. Erdogan enjoys strong support among conservatives and nationalists from the countryside and the working class. He and his ruling coalition could eventually win the presidential and parliamentary elections.

British think tank Legantum Institute ranked Turkey 95th in the world in its wealth index, down 23 positions from 2011 due to deteriorating governance and personal freedoms.

A 2016 coup attempt by parts of the military, attributed by Ankara to US-exiled Imam Fethullah Gülen, who denies involvement, led to the state of emergency recalled by Ates Altınordu, assistant professor of sociology at Sabanci University. This “formalized Erdogan’s personalist rule, backed by a group of hard-line advisers with a dubious reputation.”

“The confluence of these factors created the perfect political storm for economic collapse,” he added.

Loyal supporters

But other key measures, such as health care, infrastructure and market access, have remained strong since Mr Erdogan took office in 2003, helping his AKP win more than a dozen subsequent elections.

Erdogan has “a base of loyal supporters because the standard of living of citizens is significantly higher than for most of the 20th century,” Soner Çağaptay wrote in a 2021 book.

He wrote that before Erdogan came to power, the infant mortality rate in Turkey was comparable to the level of pre-war Syria, and now – with the level of Spain.

But political infighting has intensified across the country over the past decade as Erdogan turned to nationalist allies to secure a parliamentary majority. He later narrowly won a referendum to adopt a presidential system that concentrated power in his palace.

Reactions

Some key members of the economic staff left the AKP because of their opposition to the centralization of power. Analysts say cracks have begun to appear in his policies since then, including pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates even as the pound plunged into crisis in 2018 and late 2021.

“Everyone remembers the original rule of Erdogan, when he was considered the creator of an inclusive economy. But in reality, it has left part of society completely dependent on the government and unable to live,” said Bulent Gultekin, a former Turkish central bank governor and assistant professor at Wharton University.

“If Erdogan wins the elections and continues his economic policies, at some point he will come to a complete collapse. It’s a pretty grim picture,” he said. “You can put it off for a while, but you will end up paying the bill,” he warned.

Source: Reuters.