Anti-tank ditches near the city of Pology in the Russian-occupied southeast of Ukraine stretched to a distance of 30 km. Behind them are rows of concrete barricades with “dragon’s teeth”. Behind are defensive trenches where Russian troops are stationed. The defense lines, visible in satellite images taken by Capella Space, are part of a large network of Russian network fortifications that descend from western Russia through eastern Ukraine and all the way to Crimea — a network set up for a major Ukrainian attack, Reuters noted.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are training in the West to use a combination of different military assets on the battlefield ahead of a counteroffensive that Ukrainian officials say will take place when its forces are ready.

Reuters analyzed satellite images of thousands of defensive positions both inside Russia and along the Ukrainian front line, which show it is most heavily defended in the southern Zaporizhia region and at the entrance to the Crimean peninsula.

“It’s not about numerical superiority”

Six military experts said the lines of defense, largely established after Ukraine’s rapid advance in the fall, could complicate matters this time around, and that progress would depend on its ability to conduct complex operations and combine weapons effectively.

“We are not talking about the numerical superiority of Ukrainians. It’s about their ability to conduct this kind of warfare, combined arms operations,” said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal Armed Forces Institute (RUSI).

“The Russians have shown that they cannot do this and have returned to their old Soviet method of attrition,” he added.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive could change the dynamics of a war that has slowed to a bloody battle of attrition, and military experts say the length of the front could overstretch Russia’s defenses.

If Kyiv regains control of the south, it could regain unhindered access to its Black Sea export routes at a time when Russia has signaled it may close the grain corridor.

It is not known when the next wave of Western military aid will arrive

Ukraine may not receive another large influx of armored vehicles from the West any time soon, putting pressure on Kyiv to reclaim as much territory as possible if military support begins to wane, military experts say.

“Most stocks in the West have been cleared. It will take several years to restore them. I think this is a great opportunity (for Ukraine) to make progress,” Melvin said.

Ukraine has promised to return all of the territory occupied by Russia, an area roughly the size of Bulgaria, but officials are reluctant to divulge any information that could help Moscow.

As the vanguard of the assault, the West sent numerous modern battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as mobile bridges and mining vehicles.

How Russia was preparing for the Ukrainian counteroffensive

That is why Russia has dug large, overlapping fortifications to ensure its troops are much better protected than when they were driven out of northeastern Ukraine and the city of Kherson, satellite photos show.

Images seen by Reuters show that most of the Russian construction work took place after November, when their troops withdrew from the southern city of Kherson, and both sides tried to strengthen their positions during the winter months.

Military experts say the defense lines, stretching hundreds of kilometers, mark areas where Russia expects to be attacked or considers them strategically important for holding territory.

According to satellite images, Russian positions are most concentrated near the front line in the southeast of the Zaporozhye region in the east and along the narrow strip of land that connects the Crimean peninsula to the rest of Ukraine.

The south is of strategic importance

Military experts expect the main direction of the counteroffensive to be in the south, although the fiercest fighting in recent months has been concentrated in the east, particularly around the town of Bakhmut.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Kherson region, and some called this visit a signal of the region’s strategic importance.

Kyiv-based military analyst Oleksandr Musienko believes that the south is strategically important for Ukraine.

In addition to cutting off a land corridor from Russia to occupied Crimea, a deep penetration on the southern axis could put the peninsula within range of artillery, he said.

The peninsula, stolen from Ukraine in 2014, is home to the Black Sea Fleet, which Russia has been using to expand its power in the Middle East and Mediterranean, and for the past 14 months to fire cruise missiles at Ukraine.

In the south of the country, there is also the largest Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Europe, which has been occupied since March last year and has not been operating since September. Previously, it provided one-fifth of Ukraine’s electricity needs.

The trenches cross the entire Zaporizhzhya region

The city of Pology, visible on Capella Space satellite images, is located in the Zaporizhzhia region, a key access zone to Ukraine’s mostly flat south. The rest of the south lies behind the Dnieper, a huge natural barrier that Ukrainian troops have to overcome.

“We have traced ditches and trenches running from the east bank of the Dnieper, south of Vasylivka, to Fedorivka, meaning they cut through (the region of) Zaporizhzhia,” said John Ford, a research fellow at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey. .

According to his calculations, only this section of defense extended for 120 km.

Anti-tank ditches are deep and wide enough to prevent the advance of tanks and armored vehicles. Then there are “dragon’s teeth”, pyramids cast from concrete, trenches with soldiers a kilometer from the trenches.

In addition to ditches, barricades, and zigzag trenches, Russia’s defense lines also include minefields, barbed wire, and camouflaged weapon positions.

“A huge effort, especially in the south”

And in the case of Pologne, Russia built two distinct defensive lines, one to the north and one to the south. Aerial photographs from Zaporozhye seen by Reuters show that some towns, such as Tokmak and Bilmak, were surrounded by fortifications.

Trenches were dug along the roads, outside other settlements and at the airports of Melitopol and Berdyansk. Northern Crimea was also fortified.

Brady Afrik, a researcher and open-source intelligence analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, said he mapped the fortifications from western Russia to Crimea, and construction began in earnest after Russian forces left the city of Kherson.

“This prompted large-scale excavations, especially in the south of Ukraine, where the terrain is quite flat,” he said.

“They are an obstacle only if they are guarded by capable troops”

Despite the defensive network, four experts said the Russians will be overstretched by the length of the front, a vulnerability that Kyiv will seek to exploit through loopholes, distraction, surprise and speed of operation.

Musienko said Ukraine could use Western-provided ships for attacks on the Kherson region via the Dnipro, which would serve as decoys or full-scale attacks.

This could force Russia to withdraw troops from other locations.

“Obstacles on the battlefield are only obstacles as long as they are guarded by capable troops,” said Ford, of Middlebury.

According to Musienko’s estimates, Ukraine will have 100,000 to 110,000 troops for the offensive, including eight amphibious assault brigades totaling 40,000. Russia has not said how many troops it has in Ukraine or inside its borders ready to deploy.

Ukrainian and Russian officials have reported a series of explosions over the past month in Melitopol, the main occupied city of Zaporizhia Oblast. Musienko noted that Ukraine is targeting logistics hubs, as well as the recapture of Kherson.

According to him, the destruction of the Russian supply lines will weaken the effectiveness of the trenches: “Fortified positions are effective if you have ammunition, shells, weapons for defense.”