Are there less than nine million Belarusians left in the country?
The population of Belarus at the beginning of 2023 was 9,200,617 people, almost 55 thousand less than last year. These data were published by the National Statistical Committee of Belarus at the end of March. However, some experts believe that the calculations did not take into account migration from the Republic of Belarus, which became more active after 2020. Is it possible to say that there are already less than nine million Belarusians living in the country?
For nearly 30 years, the country’s population has declined by one million
Belarusian political scientist, director of the Institute “Political Sphere” Andrei Kazakevich, notes that during the years of Alexander Lukashenko’s rule, the population of the Republic of Belarus, even according to official data, decreased by a million people. “In 1994, the population of Belarus was 10 million 243 thousand people, now it is just over 9 million 200 thousand. The authorities can celebrate a kind of anniversary,” says Kazakevich.
At the same time, the political scientist draws attention to the fact that, most likely, the statistics published at the beginning of 2023 do not take into account people who emigrated from the Republic of Belarus recently, as well as those who periodically leave the country, for example , leave for seasonal work. According to him, the actual population “may well be less than nine million”.
Kazakevich notes that a decrease in the population due to a decrease in the birth rate and external migration is typical for almost all countries in the region, the uniqueness of the Belarusian situation is a rather large flow of political migration.
“Since 2020, at least 70,000 people have left precisely because of direct political persecution,” the expert shares the data. Added to this number, according to him, are those who left because they “did not see any prospects”, as well as “due to disagreement with the authorities”, the worsening economic situation and the war in Ukraine.
“If we take into account the peaks of migration in 2021-2022, 170-180 thousand people left for the EU, a certain number went to Russia, Georgia was also a place of attraction for Belarusian migration,” notes Kazakevich.
The number of people of working age is decreasing
“Migration from Belarus continues, but to say there are less than nine million Belarusians left is probably premature,” said Lev Lvovsky, economist and senior researcher at BEROC.
He draws attention to the fact that it is quite difficult to trace migratory flows and one can only speak of “some minimum and maximum values”. “Since 2020, definitely more than 50,000 people have left, but probably less than 200,000,” suggests Lvovsky.
The specialist believes that the departure of so many people has affected some sectors: “We are talking about IT, it also applies to doctors and some businessmen”. In his opinion, this level of external migration “adds negative” to the unfavorable demographic scenario of Belarus, where the number of healthy people is already naturally decreasing.
“The number of people of working age is decreasing much faster than the total number of Belarusians,” says the expert. This causes a “change in supply and demand in the labor market”: there is more demand for services that the elderly population needs, especially doctors, and less for services for young and middle-aged Belarusians.
Birth rate at historic low
“The second problem is that we still have a solidary social security system (the working generation pays for those who have already retired – Red.)”, – notes Lvovsky.
In his opinion, another “source of demographic problems in the Belarusian economy” is that “the population does not age linearly”, that is, the so-called “demographic waves” have been characteristic of Belarus since the Second World Wave.
Meanwhile, Andrey Kazakevich notes another factor affecting the demographic situation in Belarus: the birth rate in the country, in his words, “is at historic lows throughout the entire post-war period.”
According to Kazakevich, world experience shows that administrative measures and economic stimulus methods, which the Belarusian authorities are trying to resort to, “absolutely do not work” in fertility issues.
“The birth rate in developed and urbanized countries has been decreasing in recent decades”, says the political scientist. “Countries where the population is growing resolve demographic problems through external migration, attracting labor from other states.”
“Expecting a demographic improvement is unrealistic”
Belarus has also tried to attract migrants from Russia, but it is not an attractive country for Russian arrivals. The same applies to Ukrainians, who after the start of the war, several tens of thousands came to Belarus, which, according to Kazakevich, “is a drop in the ocean compared to the millions who left for the EU and hundreds of thousands who left for Russia.”
The political scientist is convinced that for people to come and go more, there must be economic growth, a stable political situation, “the absence of threats that the country could face serious shocks, internal conflicts, repressions and non-observance of human rights “.
“The political climate is not improving, repressions continue. Belarus is drawn into the military conflict in Ukraine, which means that many see it as a potential arena for military operations and various types of instability,” says the expert.
Kazakevich also notes a deep recession in the economy: according to the results for 2022, a 5% drop is the deepest since the mid-1990s. and a decrease in migration”, the interlocutor is convinced.
Source: DW
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