Vladimir Putin’s announcement about the future deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus has sparked a cautious reaction in the Western world, and analysts are divided on the issue, with some saying it’s a major decision, others saying it makes little difference.

While this is not unexpected, and Putin has argued that the decision will not violate nuclear non-proliferation pledges, it is one of Russia’s clearest nuclear signals in the 13 months since the invasion of Ukraine began.

The United States, the world’s other nuclear superpower, reacted cautiously to Putin’s announcement, with a senior administration official saying there was no indication Moscow intended to use its nuclear weapons.

Putin compared his plans to the U.S. placing its weapons in Europe and said Russia would not hand control of nuclear bombs to Belarus.

But still, this will be the first time since the mid-1990s that Russia has kept such weapons outside the country.

“A really important step”

“There is nothing unusual here either: firstly, the USA has been doing it for decades. They have long since deployed their tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of their allies,” Putin said on state television on Saturday.

“We agreed that we will do the same – without violating our obligations, I emphasize, without violating our international obligations regarding the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons,” the head of the Kremlin said.

Some analysts, however, do not believe that these are the usual actions of Moscow.

“This is a really important step,” said Mykola Sokol, a senior researcher at the Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation in Vienna.

“Russia has always been very proud of not having nuclear weapons outside its territory. So now, yes, change that and it’s a big change,” he added.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons also called Putin’s statement an extremely dangerous escalation.

“In the context of the war in Ukraine, the probability of miscalculation or misinterpretation is extremely high. The joint use of nuclear weapons significantly worsens the situation and threatens catastrophic humanitarian consequences,” the organization said in a message on Twitter.

“Decision without military benefit”

However, other experts believe that the transfer of some military weapons “in the yard” of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will hardly change the situation.

“It’s part of Putin’s game to try to intimidate NATO … because it’s of no military use in Belarus because Russia has so many of these weapons and forces inside Russia,” said Hans Christensen, director of nuclear intelligence. a project of the Federation of American Scientists.

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) agreed, saying the decision was “irrelevant to the risk of escalation of nuclear war, which remains extremely low,” and that “Putin is trying to exploit Western fears of nuclear escalation.” “

“Russia has long possessed nuclear weapons capable of hitting any target that Belarus’s tactical nuclear weapons can reach,” notes ISW, which continues to note that “Putin is a decision-maker, risk-averse, and constantly threatening to use nuclear weapons without the intention of using them to shake the West’s resolve.”

The Institute also notes that EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Russia reduced the chances of Russian forces using nuclear weapons because Xi made it “very, very clear” to Putin that they should not use nuclear weapons. weapons weapons

Vladimir Putin: We are not handing over control of nuclear weapons to them

Putin did not say when the weapons would be transferred to Belarus, which borders three NATO members – Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. He said that Russia will complete the construction of the storage facility in this country by July 1.

It was also unclear where the weapons would be located in Belarus. The transfer will expand Russia’s nuclear capabilities along NATO’s eastern border.

Although the Kremlin has never publicly confirmed it, the West has long said Russia keeps nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad, its exclave on the Baltic Sea coast between NATO and European Union members Poland and Lithuania.

Putin said that Belarusian President Oleksandr Lukashenko had long asked him to deploy such weapons. Lukashenko has not yet reacted to the Kremlin leader’s statement on Saturday.

Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia will retain control over them: “We will not transfer them (weapons). (How) the US does not pass (it) on to its allies. Basically, we are doing the same thing they have been doing for a decade,” Putin said.

Russia has deployed 10 aircraft capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, Putin said, adding that it has already transferred a number of Iskander tactical missile systems to Belarus, which can also launch nuclear weapons.

Americans are not impressed, Ukrainians call Belarus a “nuclear hostage”

A high-ranking official of the US administration responded to Putin’s statement by reminding that Russia and Belarus have been discussing the transfer of nuclear weapons for some time.

“We have seen no reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture and no indication that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons. We remain committed to the collective defense of the NATO alliance,” he said.

Russia has taken Belarus as a “nuclear hostage”, Ukraine said on Sunday

Secretary of the Security Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, called this decision “a step towards internal destabilization of the country.”

The Russian president’s statement “maximally increases the level of negative perception and social rejection of Russia and Putin in Belarusian society,” Danilov added.