According to Alexander Cooley, professor of political science at Barnard College (Columbia University), “a product of the success of the Ukrainians on the battlefield” is the continued military support they receive from the West. The American scholar, who was director of the Harriman Institute for Russian, Eurasian and Eastern European Studies (2015-2021), also tells K. about the Republican turn against Ukraine, Russia’s declining influence in Europe, and Greece’s attitude towards the war.

Alexander Cooley was at a closed meeting of Greek and foreign experts, government officials and heads of international organizations, held last Tuesday in Athens (with the participation of “K”), which discussed difficult and pressing questions: Are we protected from Russian disinformation operations? How did the attitude of citizens in the West to the war in Ukraine change? Republican Party Opposes NATO? What are the parameters of the complex equation of Europe’s energy independence from Russia?

In a meeting organized by the Institute of International Affairs (IDIS) of the Panteion University in cooperation with the Harriman Institute and the Athens Global Center of Columbia University, the attitude of Greece and Greek public opinion over the past 13 months was analyzed.

– At the moment, there is still a consensus that the gradual arming of Ukraine led to the successful restoration of its territory. However, if we see a prolonged stalemate or war of attrition, especially after Kiev gets new weapons like tanks, then Western leaders are likely to publicly pressure the Ukrainian government to enter the negotiating process. The Western consensus in favor of sending weapons to Ukraine is the result of Ukrainian success on the battlefield.

– De Sandys appears to have changed his stance ahead of the Republican primary to join Trump on this issue. MAGA (Make America Great Again) voters tend to be more nationalistic and concerned about US border security rather than foreign policy. They are also skeptical about Ukraine and are prone to conspiracy theories, such as Zelensky somehow framed Trump during their phone call, which led to the first impeachment proceedings against the former US president, or Kiev’s alleged interference in the 2016 US election. . By distancing himself from Ukraine, de Sandys hopes to remove the issue from Trump’s arsenal in their potential primary showdown. But if he wins the anointing, he will have to take a more supportive stand. More than 60% of Americans are in favor of further support for Ukraine.

Freezing the conflict could tempt Putin or his successors to regroup and launch new offensives in the future.

“His influence with the mainstream parties has declined significantly, despite continued Russian media operations and the sympathy he continues to command from far-left and far-right parties. Russia has underestimated the value of its invasion image and its genocidal rhetoric. A number of prominent European far-right politicians opposed to the transatlantic alliance, notably France’s Marine Le Pen, have distanced themselves from Putin. Italy’s ultra-conservative Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has strongly supported Zelensky, in contrast to her more pro-Moscow League partners.

– It will depend on the type of injury. Russia may keep some of its territorial acquisitions, including Crimea, but Ukraine’s accession to the EU would be a strategic defeat. and the provision of security guarantees by major European powers. Freezing the conflict could tempt Putin or his successors to regroup and launch new offensives in the future. Without any internal accountability mechanism documenting the disastrous consequences of Putin’s decisions, the Kremlin will be considering a possible next round of military action.

– Perhaps it surprised some, but Greece has always enjoyed the benefits of joining the Western alliance, criticizing Western institutions from within. Think back to Andreas Papandreou’s fiery rhetoric about US bases in the 1980s, but Greece’s facilities and involvement in NATO endured. Some feared that SYRIZA would support the lifting of EU sanctions. against Russia. Instead, the Tsipras government ushered in an important new era of bilateral security cooperation with the US. Populism and anti-Americanism are enduring features of Greek politics, but they rarely lead to real change in pro-Western foreign and security policy.