Who is Natalya Kochanova, who will replace Lukashenka during an emergency
Natalya Kochanova met with the delegation of the Republic of Cuba, participated in a meeting of the Security Council, held a meeting with the leadership of Minsk, and her personal reception to citizens lasted 11 hours and 43 minutes – these are multi-day reports from the Telegram channel of the Council of the Republic, the upper house of the Belarusian parliament. The news about Kachanova’s personal reception is published by the channel with three spokes, and before and after her name in each message there are red-green flags.
According to the constitution updated last year, it was the head of the Council of the Republic, in place of the prime minister, who became the second person in the country to replace Lukashenka should something happen to him. What kind of woman is this and whether Lukashenka sees her successor in her, DW discussed with experts.
She started her career as a dispatcher for Vodokanal
62-year-old Kochanova, originally from Polotsk, Vitebsk region, started working as a dispatcher at Vodokanal and gradually progressed through her career in the housing and communal services system. For seven years she was the mayor of Novopolotsk, close to her hometown. And then, suddenly, she made a quick career in the capital: deputy prime minister, head of the presidential administration, speaker of the upper house of parliament. When she was appointed to the first high post, Lukashenka mentioned that Kochanov was recommended by the security forces. Since then, she – at least publicly – has not allowed herself a single bright statement, has not expressed a single new idea.
“Our president – the true leader of his country – cares and worries about each person”, is one of his usual quotes in the Telegram of the Council of the Republic. And this is how he summed up the year that is ending: “We went through 2022 quite successfully, but I believe that 2023 will be better. The president said so and I believe him.” And here is how Kochanova tells Belarusians about Belarus: “Our own path is truly unique and can serve as an example for many other countries and peoples.”
Amidst the 2020 protests, Natalya Kochanova met with students. Young people asked about the Bologna process and she told them about the “Dulles plan” – a conspiracy theory, a non-existent plan by the United States that supposedly contributes to the moral decay of Russians.
“The Belarusian regime does not like bright personalities,” says political analyst and former employee of the presidential administration of Belarus Anatoly Kotov. – All of Kochanova’s speeches seem to be carbon copies. A set of stamps is everything. But that doesn’t determine a person’s place in this system.”
Two Failed 2020 Campaigns
In 2020, Natalya Kochanova was responsible for two of the most important campaigns in the country – the fight against the coronavirus and the presidential election. Both were failures for Lukashenka, who – in denial of both the pandemic and sociology – faced the most massive protests in the country’s history. Former editor-in-chief of Sovetskaya Belorussia, newspaper of the presidential administration, Pavel Yakubovich in August 2020 in an interview with Nasha Niva considered Kochanova’s appointment to the top government post a big mistake.
Anatoly Kotov says that before the elections, the country’s leadership discussed how many percent to “draw” Lukashenka. Business manager Viktor Sheiman reportedly offered 60% and even a loss in Minsk, which, in his opinion, would have stopped the protests. However, Kochanova’s proposal won the discussion – 80%.
“This is the opinion that Lukashenka wanted to hear,” explains Anatoly Kotov. “The logic of almost any employee who is part of this inner circle is determined by two paradigms of behavior. First: do not argue. Second: try to guess desires . “.
What is her secret?
Despite the failure of the election strategy, Natalya Kochanova, unlike many officials, after 2020 not only did not lose her post, but, on the contrary, strengthened her position.
There are several important qualities that allow her to remain in Lukashenka’s inner circle for so long, believes political scientist Valery Karbalevich. “The first is facelessness, the absence of any political claim to some kind of independent role. The second is the absence of some talent as a public politician. And the third is diligence. Any politician who claims some kind of power, some kind of influence and, even more, independence, are not necessary”, he says.
Kotov argues that Kochanova’s positions at the level of regional authorities are gradually strengthening. “For several years, a rather serious rotation of the heads of the executive committees has been carried out – and all of them, one way or another, passed the check, an interview with Natalya Ivanovna. There is practically a personnel office that is almost indebted to her “, says the political scientist.
He points out that the so-called “Vitebsk clan” has strengthened in the Belarusian government, which includes not only Kachanova herself or the speaker of the lower house of parliament Vladimir Andreichenko, but also the current head of the presidential administration, Igor Sergienko.
The former employee of the presidential administration agrees that the spokesman for the Council of the Republic can be called a second person not only by the constitution, but also by the degree of influence over Lukashenka: “This is the main occupation of Natalya Ivanovna – the creation of a system of influence,” he believes. “I don’t know, simply whether the work trick worked or, in principle, an understanding of how all these systems – from the Komsomol to the party – worked in the days of the Soviet Union.
Does Lukashenka see Kochanova as his successor?
Anatoly Kotov agrees that the “Kochanov successor” scenario is one of the possible ones that the Belarusian authorities tried to implement in late 2020 and later, for reasons known only to Lukashenka, were put on hold.
In his opinion, there is now an attempt to “play this scenario in the long term”. “There is still a year left for this to become a reality, if nothing urgent happens. The very idea of \u200b\u200bbuilding the Pan-Belarusian People’s Assembly, an attempt to turn the page is a rather lengthy process. But by the Single Voting Day (25 February 2024 – Red.) this script can be implemented”.
Political scientist Valery Karbalevich has a different opinion: “The question of the successor arises when an authoritarian leader is about to leave. Lukashenka is not going to leave anywhere. There is simply no one who could be called a second. could hasten his departure from power – the power.”
Meanwhile, there are two years left before the next presidential elections in Belarus – when, if not now, should Lukashenko think about a successor?
“I think that the probability that Lukashenka will run for a new presidential term and run again as a presidential candidate in 2025 is extremely high. In such a situation, the question of a successor simply disappears,” Valery Karbalevich answers this question.
Source: DW
Anna White is a journalist at 247 News Reel, where she writes on world news and current events. She is known for her insightful analysis and compelling storytelling. Anna’s articles have been widely read and shared, earning her a reputation as a talented and respected journalist. She delivers in-depth and accurate understanding of the world’s most pressing issues.