In the Western world, both political and military leaders and diplomats have placed the issue of defeat at the top of their agendas. Russia. This year’s Munich Security Conference comes about a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine February 24, which marked the beginning of a disastrous war.

American and European officials are optimistic. Saturday in Munich, Vice President USAKamala Harris is expected to give a speech in which he will report that “US commitments to Ukraine remain in place.” In addition, French President Emmanuel Macron plans to discuss how to “ensure the defeat of Russia”, as well as how the West can support Ukraine in the coming months.

“Russia has already been defeated”

In meetings he held in Brussels with his NATO counterparts, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said, among other things, that a possible Ukrainian counterattack in the spring “could make a big difference on the battlefield.” “”. In fact, on the sidelines of the same conference, General Mark Milley declared that impoverished and isolated Russia had already been defeated.

“Russia is now a pariah of the international community, and the world continues to be inspired by the courage and strength of Ukrainians,” Mili said. In short, he said that Russia “lost on a strategic, operational and tactical level.”

There is no doubt that Putin’s war in Ukraine had devastating consequences for Russia as well. Losses on the Russian side in the war are estimated at about 200,000 people. Moreover, the conscription of some 300,000 more Russians has, at best, slowed down Ukraine’s counteroffensive to retake territory that Russia has placed under its control. In recent weeks, the Kremlin’s losses have been particularly heavy and demoralizing.

Possible “bloodyer” Russian attack

However, there is a possibility of a new Russian attack, which could be even more bloody. “Given the current death toll, a new attack could lead to unprecedented loss of life and a complete collapse in the morale of the already demoralized Russian troops,” said Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council.

“This will greatly complicate the life of the Russian military, who will face a serious blow to discipline, which can significantly limit their ability to conduct offensive operations,” he adds.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces are depleting their arsenal. It has lost about half of its tanks, according to estimates released this week by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. As a result, Russia is using stockpiles of weapons from earlier eras, including those from the Soviet era. Ammunition stockpiles in Russia are rapidly declining, as in Ukraine.

What about sanctions?

As for Western sanctions against Russia, they managed to damage its economy and industry in certain sectors, as well as “slow down” the process of rapprochement between Moscow and Europe. But despite the serious implications, the economic measures under consideration have failed to force Putin to change his stance.

This is partly due to the fact that Europeans continue to receive significant income from imports of Russian gas and oil. Despite the desire of European countries to become completely independent of Russian energy, they did not manage to achieve this goal overnight.

However, new data emerging from the invasion of Ukraine could accelerate the European transition to decarbonizing the economy and further reducing Russian influence in the Old Continent.

“The results already speak for themselves. For the first time last year, more energy was generated in Europe from wind and solar combined than from oil and natural gas,” wrote Brent Peabody in Foreign Policy.

The end of the war is drawing near

But despite Russia’s claims of defeat, the war doesn’t seem to be drawing to a close. Analysts attribute this, in part, to Putin’s personal resolve – and delusions.

Finally, it is worth noting that, despite the US commitment to support Ukraine, the US government simultaneously indicates to the Ukrainian side that the assistance provided at the moment may not be able to be provided in the same volume in the future, especially after control of the House of Representatives passed to the Republicans.

“We will continue to point out to them that we cannot do all this forever,” a senior US official said, referring to the Ukrainian leadership.

^{Source: Washington Post.}