The decisive (of course) but extremely brutal (possibility) next phase of the war in Ukraine is beginning to “show” us how it might unfold as we leave winter and enter spring.

After a period of sustenance, regrouping, training, being wounded from afar, as well as fierce clashes mostly on one front: the front Bahamut According to The New York Times, in eastern Ukraine, the warring parties are now preparing – both – for new attacks.

In fact, it is believed that Moscow will be the first to take the offensive step. The weapons systems that the West sends to the Ukrainians are increasing over time and also getting stronger (see tanks Leopard while Kyiv, for its part, is also requesting fighter jets), and in this context, the Russian side believes it must act first and quickly to anticipate any future new Western arms shipments. It is also remembered, and this is important, that German-made tanks Leopardbritish tanks Challenger 2 and many other things that the Westerners promised as military aid to Ukraine, which has not yet arrived. (I mention, by the way, American-made armored vehicles Bradley which the US promised to send, if they haven’t arrived yet, they are arriving these days.)

Ukrainians, for their part, are warning that Russia’s impending attack could be the most “ambitious” Russian forces have carried out since the outbreak of the war in February 2022. After all, we recall that the Russians have from recruiting up to hundreds of thousands of new fighters, many of whom are now planning to send to the front.

On the other hand, the stake for Ukraine will be to be able to successfully defend itself without exhausting the resources it needs to launch its own counterattack.

Kyiv trains thousands of its soldiers outside Ukrainian borders (in USAV BritanniaV Germany) and is trying to stockpile heavy weapons and ammunition ahead of an attack aimed at “breaking the bones” of the Russian military, Oleksandr Danylyuk, former head of Ukraine’s National Security Council, told the New York Times.

“There is no doubt that both sides want to go on the offensive,” says Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general and fellow at the Lowy Australian Institute of Studies.

Where can Russia attack?

According to Ukrainian intelligence services, Russian President Vladimir Putin he asked his generals to take control of the entire Donbass (and this is Liman, and Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut) by March 2023.

About 320,000 Russian troops are already in Ukraine, and it is estimated that another 150,000 are being trained. By mobilizing these numerous forces, the Kremlin could launch a flurry of attacks in the hope that they would overwhelm Ukrainian resistance in numbers, speed and intensity.

The Russians will try to “occupy” the key positions of the Ukrainians, such as Bahamut, Port And Volendar. Which Volendar in particular, it is only a few kilometers from the railway line leading to the Russian-controlled Crimea and therefore is considered an important station on the supply line of Russian troops.

It is assumed that the Russians could attack from Volendar south and from Kremina in the north, thus trying to encircle the Ukrainian forces fighting in the west Donetsk.

Moscow could, however, try to do something else: for example, “divert” the defense of Ukraine to other directions, inflicting new strikes on Sumy and to Kharkiv in the north, as this will force the Ukrainians to take forces from other places and transfer them there.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukrainian defense minister, believes that if the Russians succeed in capturing all of its territory Donbassthen they will announce the end of the Russian “special operation” started a year ago in Ukraine and declare their readiness for peace negotiations.

Where can Ukrainians attack?

According to the NY Times analysis, the Ukrainians, although they officially declare that their goal is to regain all the lost territories, including Crimea, have little chance of re-approaching the line of contact east of Mariupol, as it was formed before the Russian invasion 24^her February 2022.

Instead, the Ukrainian counterattack, which is most likely to succeed, is directed to the south. The Russian positions there are worth noting, as they are within range of the U.S. HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems that Ukraine has at its disposal.

It makes sense for Ukrainians to move towards this melitopolis, a city crossed by two major highways and a railway line. If they succeed in capturing it, they will deal a significant blow to the Russian supply lines, which they will sever, and the remaining Russians in the west will be within range of western missiles available to Ukrainian forces. The Russians obviously know this, so they blocked the way to Melitopol with trenches, anti-tank traps, concrete pyramids, etc.

The Russians do not under any circumstances want to ‘lose’ the main road arteries connecting southern Kherson with (‘Russian’ as of 2014) Crimea, as this would cause serious supply problems for Russian forces outside of Crimea. It is also recalled that the loss of Kherson, when it was taken out of Russian control in November last year (2022), was explained by the Russian military leadership as supply problems that made it impossible to maintain Russian troops west of the Dnieper,” we wrote in K. in December last year.

In two months, everything seems to be preparing for new major conflicts, with the Russian president Vladimir Putin announce sermon For February 21 and American President Joe Biden switch to Poland between February 20 and 22and February 24 officially marks a year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.