Russian forces may be preparing the ground for an attack from Belarus on Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says in its latest assessment, stressing that an invasion by Vladimir Putin’s forces from Belarus is not yet imminent.

In the daily reports of the General Staff of Ukraine from December 1 to 15, it is constantly stated that Ukrainian officials have not detected Russian troops in Belarus forming combat groups necessary for an offensive in the north of Ukraine. Currently, there are no indications from open sources that Russian troops are forming strike groups in Belarus. It remains extremely unlikely that Belarusian forces will invade Ukraine without the accompaniment of a Russian assault group.

It should also be noted that on Friday morning Belarus announced that Vladimir Putin would come to Minsk to “exchange views” with Lukashenko.

Four clues that support this idea

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals in Ukraine have not changed, according to assessments by Ukrainian officials and ISV based on Kremlin statements and actions.

Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine, using numerous mechanisms aimed at forcing Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms, as well as making very favorable concessions to Russia. These fundamental goals have underpinned the Kremlin’s various military, political, economic, and diplomatic efforts over the past 10 months in Ukraine.

ISW says the following signs support the prediction that Russia could create the conditions for an attack on Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023, in the winter:

The Russian army is increasingly present in Belarus

Russia’s military presence in Belarus has increased since the fall of 2022. Several official Ukrainian and independent Belarusian sources have reported an increase in the Russian military presence in Belarus from October 2022.

Ukrainian General Oleksiy Khromov said on Thursday that during the week from December 4 to 11, Russia transferred one battalion of tanks to the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground in Brest and one battalion of tanks to the Losivdo training ground in Vitebsk.

In October, a high-ranking representative of Ukrainian intelligence said that Russia had already sent about 3,200 troops to Belarus. These numbers alone are not enough to support an invasion of Ukraine, but they may indicate an attempt to re-establish a large Russian force in Belarus.

The Russian command is keeping its options open

Ukrainian officials say that Russian forces in Belarus have no concrete plans to return to Russia after completing their training.

Khromov noted that the Russian military did not give Russian servicemen in Belarus for training any information about their future tasks – whether they would be sent back to Russia, remain in Belarus or attack Ukraine.

Russian military leaders are likely to remain open to a possible strike on Ukraine from Belarus in the early months of 2023.

Ukrainians are sure that the attempt to storm Kyiv will be carried out

High-ranking Ukrainian officials are increasingly warning that Russian troops may try to attack Kyiv.

Ukrainian army chief Valery Zaluzhny said Russian forces could try to attack Ukraine from Belarus between January and March 2023, and said Thursday that “I have no doubt that (Russian forces) will try to attack Kyiv again.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday that Russia may be preparing for a large-scale offensive in January and February 2023.

The “elite” of the Moscow army is studying in Belarus

It is reported that since Thursday, units of the 1st Guards Tank Army – theoretically the most elite mechanized formation of the Russian army, which could form the core of the strike force – have been training in Belarus.

Khromov said that units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army are training in Belarus. All maneuver units of the 1st Guards Tank Army suffered significant losses near Kharkov, Sumy and in the eastern Kyiv region, which calls into question its “elite” status and effective combat strength even after being formed by mobilized reservists and/or recruits.

“Extremely unlikely” will be more successful than February

It remains extremely unlikely that Russian troops will be able to capture Kyiv, even if Russian troops attack again from Belarus, the Institute for the Study of War notes.

It is highly unlikely that Russian forces will be more successful in advancing into northern Ukraine this winter than they were in February 2022.

Russia’s conventional forces have seriously degraded and lack the combat power they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its force attack to capture Kyiv in February 2022.

Russian forces were unable to advance into Ukraine and lost more than 70,000 square kilometers of occupied territory after leaving Kyiv.

Why the new attack fails

Currently, Russian troops in Bakhmut advance no more than 100-200 meters per day, having concentrated their main efforts there. Russia has not secured air superiority in Ukraine and has largely exhausted its arsenal of high-precision munitions.

Ukrainian forces, in turn, have prepared significant defenses in the north of Ukraine and are now better equipped for self-defense than in February 2022.

The terrain near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is not conducive to maneuver warfare, and possible invasion routes from Belarus to Kyiv pass through lightly defended strongholds in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, and Ukrainian forces now have enough experience to defend themselves there.