The arrival of winter is likely to give the Ukrainian military an advantage in the war against the Russian invaders, which is an unusual situation given the history of fighting in Eastern Europe over the last century, explains military analyst Jack Watling of the Royal Joint Forces Institute.

Watling, in a series of posts on his Twitter page, recalls recent discussions about the consequences of the “spill” for armored vehicles and tanks used during the military operations in Ukraine, saying that they are not as fundamental as they might seem at first glance. view.

“Winter really affects infantry, then logistics, and the effect on logistics has a secondary effect on military equipment,” he says, explaining that winter leaves much of the foliage that soldiers use for camouflage.

“That means you have to stay down. Unfortunately, this also means humidity and dirt. Wet means dirt. There is a limited amount of time you can be wet and cold and still live. Staying dry and warm in this environment takes a lot of discipline. That means you have to keep your wet and dry gear separate,” he says.

Watling also explains that these things require the ability to carefully organize your transition from wet to dry gear in frontline conditions:

“If your dry gear gets wet, you have relatively little time before you become ineffective in combat and need to go somewhere warm to dry both you and your gear. It probably means electricity or fire. Both are rare in the conditions of the front.”

The Ukrainian army has many years of experience in winter battles

A military analyst notes that a force’s endurance and ability to operate on the battlefield, away from cover, is therefore closely tied to the discipline of its soldiers and their survival skills.

But Ukraine’s military has eight years of winter defense experience in the country’s east after pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence in 2014 following Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces also have junior officers with smart leadership skills and people who care about others. If you look at the fighting positions of the Ukrainians, they are, as a rule, well preserved. People tend to have warm clothing and protective lines that have areas behind them that are kept clean, dry and warm. Company commanders build them near combat positions,” Jack Watling notes.

Instead, it says, Russian soldiers who were brought in after the partial mobilization order on September 21 have neither the experience nor the skills to operate at the front for extended periods of time, a problem compounded by the fact that many of them have not received the necessary equipment for winter conditions. .

“There is often complete chaos in their combat positions. Only this will lead to losses for the Russians due to the weather. It will also reduce the speed at which they can maneuver and make them more dependent on centralized hubs where soldiers can recuperate. These nodes can be attacked,” explains Watling.

The analyst notes that Ukrainian forces can inflict heavy losses on the Russian army only through aggressive fighting that keeps Moscow’s soldiers in combat positions and by organizing attacks in such a way as to prevent the rotation of Russian units.

“The result will be a high death rate from hypothermia and disease,” he says.

What should Ukrainian forces do in the coming months

Turning to logistics, he also explains that most military support vehicles are wheeled, not tracked, and that both the Russians and Ukrainians rely heavily on requisitioned civilian vehicles to replenish troops at the front.

“People are exaggerating how much of a problem it will be for tanks. But this is a huge problem for wheeled logistics vehicles. This means that winter logistics are much more dependent on roads, which makes the logistics system vulnerable. The situation also narrows the axes along which supplies can move. Slow replenishment rates reduce the pace of operations,” Watling explains.

This does not mean that tanks and armored vehicles cannot maneuver, but that it will take longer to resupply, repair and recover if they have problems at the front, which reduces the opportunity to exploit gaps in the defensive lines and makes offensive operations more expensive. minus for Ukrainians.

But Watling says the goal for Ukrainian forces should be to regain combat capability after recent offensives, and that in the winter they should use artillery, exciting battles and sustained pressure to keep the Russians out.

“The result will be bad for Russian morale, discipline and fighting power. The task of maximum losses due to the effects of the elements also creates a need for the Russians to compensate for their losses. This means that the newly mobilized will be pushed to the front lines with limited training, and not formed into new units,” the military analyst explains.

“This should help Ukraine retain the initiative,” he emphasizes, adding that unless we see an unexpected collapse of the Russian front, winter could lead to a reduction in large-scale offensive actions.

“But this does not mean a reduction in fighting or the amount of ammunition spent,” concludes Jack Watling, as do other military analysts who believe that the arrival of the winter months will not mean a “freeze” on the front.

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