Not much time has passed since Moscow decided to hold a referendum on independence occupied territorieswith his province being the most important Peninsula – one of the main land bridges to Crimea, connected since 2014.

The outcome was a foregone conclusion, everyone knew that the Russians would arrange the first fake referendum to give the appearance of legitimacy to their illegal occupation of Kherson, the only regional capital occupied since the beginning of the invasion 24 Februaryand until yesterday it was the most important success of the Russian army.

Indeed, until yesterday, as on the evening of Wednesday, November 9, the Minister of Defense of Russia Sergei Shoigu ordered the Russian troops to retreat. from the western bank of the Dnieper and Kherson.

Commander of the Russians in Ukraine, General Sergey Surovikinsaid that it was no longer possible to continue supplying the city, while the withdrawal would mean that the Russian troops would completely withdraw from the western bank of the river. Dnieper.

This is by far the most important Ukrainian attack on Russiaand the counterattack of Kyiv develops in a wide arc to the east and south.

“Under these conditions, the most logical option is to organize defense along the Dnieper line,” General Surovikin said during the retreat, acknowledging that Russian troops were experiencing supply problems and could not hold Kherson.

“We will save the lives of our soldiers and ensure the combat capability of our units. Keeping forces on the west bank is useless. Some of them can be used on other fronts,” Surovikin added.

Everything under consideration

However, the Ukrainians are now taking a wait-and-see attitude. OUR Mikhail PodolyakAdvisor to the President of Ukraine Zelenskyannounced that they would talk about the withdrawal of the Russians when the Ukrainian flag again fluttered over the city.

According to The newspaper “New York TimesUkrainian intelligence agencies tried to assess Russia’s actions, noting that the statement could be false, with ulterior motives.

Agency ReutersLate Wednesday night, however, he spoke of a “big retreat” by the Russians. However, on Thursday, Ukrainian troops continued their offensive to the south.

According to the Reuters cable, Kyiv remained cautious, warning that a Russian withdrawal could turn Kherson into “city ​​of death“. Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army Valery Zaluzny said they can’t yet confirm if Russia is really withdrawing, but they can say that Ukrainian forces have moved forward 7 kilometers in the last 24 hours as well as they recaptured 12 settlements.

Images of a small group of Ukrainian soldiers in the center of the village Snigurovka about 55 kilometers north of Kherson was shown on Ukrainian state television.

They were met by dozens of residents on the square, right behind them on a pole fluttered the Ukrainian flag. Reuters confirmed the location of the video.

Stremusov’s car accident

And a side detail of its own interest: the announcement of the Russian withdrawal was made shortly after the Russian media reported that the deputy commander of Kherson, Kirill Stremusovdied in a traffic accident.

He was Moscow’s man in the region – Ukrainians called him a “Russian puppet”. A week ago, he warned of the need for Russian troops to cross the eastern bank of the Dnieper.

For his part, the exiled vice-governor of the Kherson region, Sergio Clan, said conditions for tens of thousands of civilians are deteriorating. “Kherson is on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe.”

What does the restoration of the peninsula mean?

Before the Russian invasion, Kherson had a population of approx. 380,000 inhabitants. In addition to being located close to the Black Sea coast, it has another geographical advantage: it is adjacent to the peninsula Crimea – part annexed by Russia in 2014 and home to a number of its military bases.

“Kherson is a key point in Crimea,” he told the BBC. Marina Mirona defense researcher at King’s College London adds: “Returning it will pave the way for the return of Crimea, which is what Ukraine intends to do in this war.”

OUR Forbes Mackenziea former British Army intelligence officer and executive director of Mackenzie Intelligence also told the BBC that Kherson’s location is important because it “makes it easier to control the Dnieper River, which flows right through the center of Ukraine.”

Symbolic meaning

It is the only one of Ukraine’s regional capitals to have been captured by Russian forces, so its recapture sends an important message: The war is going well for Kyiv.

Marina Miron stressed that the restoration will message to the West: The money spent on supporting Ukraine and supplying weapons was worth it.

At the same time, while the Ukrainian counter-offensive was in full swing, Moscow was desperately asking for success, for victory at least on a symbolic level. The preservation of the occupation of Kherson can be found in his narrative. Kremlin. However, this resulted in another error.

For a long time, Ukrainian forces have chosen a strategy of slow advance, which has made Russian life in the region unbearable. They have had bomb the Dnieper bridgescutting off the supply routes of Moscow to Kherson from the east and south.

Ukrainian troops, at the same time, gradually continued their offensive from the northwest and northeast. It seemed that Russian forces were caught in Ukrainian pincers.

Until recently, Russia claimed to have eliminated 70,000 citizens from the city along with officers and soldiers. However, the Ukrainian military considered that the information about the withdrawal of troops could be a ploy. OUR Mackenzie Intellect it is estimated that Russia had up to 10,000 soldiers to defend the city, including elite forces.

Prior to Shoigu’s announcement of his departure, assessments converged in the scenario of events Civil War – that the Ukrainian army will invade the city and the fighting will go from house to house with a large number of victims.

So far, this does not seem like the most likely scenario. Events will show what ultimately happened – and if Russia really completely loses control of Kherson, the war will enter a new, completely different turn.

NATO: We will support Ukraine for as long as it takes

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that Russia is under intense pressure in Ukraine after it ordered its troops to withdraw from Kherson.

Address after the meeting with the Prime Minister of Italy Georgia MeloniAccording to Stoltenberg, in the coming days, NATO will monitor whether the Russians have indeed left the western bank of the Dnieper.

“Obviously Russia is under a lot of pressure and if they withdraw from Kherson it will be another victory for Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said, adding that NATO will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”

“The unprecedented support provided by NATO allies, including Italy, is changing the battlefield every day and remains vital to Ukraine’s progress,” Meloni said, adding that her government remains committed to defending “territorial integrity, sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine.

New York Times, BBC, Reuters, Washington Post