Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position has been weakened by his decision to invade Ukraine, but a change of power in Russia is unlikely to happen anytime soon because of the autocratic nature of its political system, a Western official told Reuters on Wednesday.

Putin, the Kremlin’s longest-serving supreme leader since Joseph Stalin, has ruled Russia for nearly 23 years since Boris Yeltsin handed him the nuclear portfolio on the last day of 1999.

After constitutional changes in 2020, some Russia watchers expected Putin to rule until 2036. But the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 changed the idea.

“He was weakened by this truly catastrophic mistake,” said the Western official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely. “We see how the Russian army is humiliated on the battlefield by Ukraine.”

“People see that he made a big mistake”

The official noted that the war strengthened Ukrainian statehood and prompted further expansion of the NATO military alliance, weakening the position of Putin, who turned 70 on October 7.

“People see that he made a big mistake,” said the same official. “They (the Russians) didn’t have a plan B — they thought it would be very easy.”

“It must mean that people are talking more about the succession, talking more about what will happen next, imagining the afterlife. But I don’t think it will happen anytime soon.”

Changes are unlikely to happen in the near future

While a change in Kremlin leadership is unlikely to happen anytime soon, the official said the mid-2020s are starting to look “more interesting.”

The next scheduled presidential elections in Russia will be held in 2024. Putin has not yet said whether he will run again or not.

The Kremlin, which declined to immediately comment on the Western official’s remarks, said Putin is the most popular politician in Russia and has won four presidential elections.

Putin does not regret the start of the “special operation”

Putin has said he has no regrets about launching what he calls Russia’s “special operation” against Ukraine, and has portrayed the war as a watershed moment when Russia finally stood up to arrogant Western hegemony after decades of humiliation in previous years. of the Soviet Union in 1991.

After the West imposed the toughest sanctions on Moscow in modern history over the war, Putin says Russia is turning to Asia, and especially China, after centuries of viewing the West as a crucible of economic growth and technology.

The biggest confrontation since the Cuban Missile Crisis

The war in Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of people and sparked the biggest confrontation with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the Cold War superpowers came to nuclear war.

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are preparing for winter as temperatures begin to drop, and the war is likely to continue to be a “protracted, difficult and bloody conflict,” the official said.

After Putin ordered a partial mobilization on Sept. 21, at least 400,000 Russians have left the country, in addition to the flow of Russians who left shortly after the invasion order was issued, the official said.

Russia’s economy suffered

According to them, Russia’s economy will shrink by at least 4.5% in 2022 and continue to shrink next year, the official also said.

“These figures mask a really significant distortion in the economy due to the shift to military production,” they said.

The official added that there are still no signs that Russia is ready to seriously negotiate with Ukraine.

“This will continue to be a long, difficult and bloody conflict,” the Western official concluded.

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