Ukrainian forces preparing to attack Khersona city under Russian control from the first days of the invasion.

The possible loss of Kherson would mean another defeat for Moscow, which had already recorded significant losses on the battlefield, would further “squeeze” Vladimir Putin and lead to a new escalation of the war.

Because Kherson is considered a city of critical importance

Kherson, with a population of 280,000 before the war, is the only regional capital captured by Russian troops. This is the first major Ukrainian city that surrendered to Moscow in the first days of the invasion.

Its loss was a major blow to Ukraine due to its important geographic location as well as its role as a major industrial center. Through Kherson, Ukrainians can again cut off the water supply to the Crimea.

Over the summer, Ukrainian forces launched large-scale offensive operations aimed at recapturing part of the Kherson region, one of four regions that Vladimir Putin announced would be annexed by Russia.

With HIMARS rocket launchers, the Ukrainians hit a key bridge across the Dnieper for Russian troops, as well as a large dam used by Moscow’s troops. The strikes forced Russia to resort to ships and ferries, which were also targeted by the Ukrainians.

These attacks have cut off supplies from Kherson and Russian troops on the western bank of the Dnieper, which are now at risk of being surrounded by Ukrainian forces.

This situation worsened further after the destruction of part of the Kerch Bridge connecting the Russian mainland with Crimea, which is an important supply hub for Russian troops in the south.

What did Russia say?

Putin blamed Ukraine for the Kerch Bridge disaster and responded to the attack by ordering the bombing of Ukrainian cities. He also declared martial law in Kherson and three other occupied regions.

But as Ukrainian forces continue their offensive on the southwestern front, it becomes increasingly difficult for Russian forces to stop their advance.

Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, appeared to be setting the stage for a possible withdrawal from Kherson, acknowledging that the situation in the region was “quite difficult” for Moscow.

Russian authorities, who initially rejected plans to evacuate the city, have in recent days urged residents to evacuate to Russian-controlled areas, fearing that Kherson would be attacked by Ukrainian forces.

About 25,000 people had left the city by Saturday, according to Moscow. Among them are officials appointed by the Kremlin and civil servants of the regional administration.

Moscow also warned that Ukraine was planning an attack on the Kakhokvinskaya hydroelectric dam, which would flood many areas, including Kherson.

For its part, Ukraine denies the accusations and accuses Russia of planning to blow up the dam itself in order to cause catastrophic floods before the withdrawal of its troops.

“Russia mined the dam and the units of the Kakhokvinskaya hydroelectric power station,” V. Zelensky told the Council of Europe and called on world leaders to make it clear to the Kremlin that undermining it would mean exactly the same as the use of weapons of mass destruction. .

What would the loss of Kherson mean for Russia?

The possible withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson and other areas on the western bank of the Dnieper will dash Moscow’s hopes of pushing westward towards Nikolayev and Odessa to cut off Kyiv’s access to the Black Sea. Such a move would deal a crushing blow to the Ukrainian economy. It would also allow Moscow to build a land corridor to Transnistria in Moldova, where there is a major Russian military base.

“Losing Kherson will turn all those Kremlin dreams into dust,” said Ole Zhdanov, a Kyiv-based military analyst.

“Kherson is the “key” for the entire southern region. This will allow Ukraine to target key supply corridors for Russian troops. The Russians will try to keep the region under their control, using all means,” he added.

For Ukraine, the capture of Kherson would pave the way for the return of part of the Russian-controlled Zaporozhye region, as well as other territories in the south.

“Ukraine just needs to wait until Kherson falls into its hands like a ‘ripe fruit’, as the situation with the supply of Russian forces is deteriorating day by day,” Zhdanov added.

Restoring control over Kherson would also mean that Kyiv could cut off the water supply to Crimea. “If they retreat from Kherson, the Russians will again have water problems in Crimea,” Zhdanov stressed.

He also added that Putin could step up attacks in Ukraine if he loses Kherson. “The Russians would rather wipe Kherson off the face of the earth than give it to Ukraine,” the Ukrainian analyst said.

Vladimir Fesenko, head of Kyiv-based think tank Penta Center, said that control of Kherson and other southern regions is a big reward for Russia, and losing them would have painful consequences for Putin both at home and abroad. “If the Russians leave Kherson, the Kremlin will face a new wave of harsh criticism,” Fesenko said.

He also added that China and India, which closely monitor Russia’s actions in Ukraine, will see the loss of Kherson as a sign of Kremlin weakness.

According to AP News