Asked by CNN on Tuesday how likely it is that Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons, President Biden said: “Well, I don’t think he will.” But in the context of the Ukrainian offensive, such a possibility cannot be ruled out.

What are “tactical” nuclear weapons?

They are usually defined as “non-strategic weapons”, as opposed to strategic, which the US military defines as targeting “the enemy’s ability and readiness to wage war”.

They are designed to fulfill more limited and immediate military objectives. The term “tactical” mostly describes weapons with low destructive power – the amount of energy released during an explosion.

They can be mounted on missiles, launched from the air, or even in projectiles at relatively short ranges, rather than ballistic missiles that can travel thousands of kilometers to strike targets on other continents.

In terms of explosive power, tactical weapons can range from fractions of a kiloton to 50 kt. One kiloton is equivalent to 1000 tons of TNT.

Who has them?

Many of the world’s nuclear powers have weapons that can be used in theater.

According to a March report by the US Congressional Service, Russia has 1,000 to 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons in its arsenal.

Putin, who rules the world’s largest nuclear power, has repeatedly warned the West that an attack on Russia could provoke a nuclear response. He said the US had set a “precedent” when it dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

The United States has about 230 non-strategic nuclear weapons, including 100 B61 bombs, stored in Europe.

North Korea also conducted a wave of missile tests this week, saying it simulated a tactical nuclear bombardment of South Korea. Experts believe that if North Korea resumes nuclear tests, it will develop smaller weapons intended for combat operations.

Will they be used in Ukraine?

Biden has expressed doubt that Putin will use nuclear weapons, but has previously noted that the use of smaller weapons could get out of hand. “I don’t think there can be any idea of ​​using tactical nuclear weapons that doesn’t end in Armageddon,” he said.

And as Russia weakens on the Ukrainian fronts, the once-unthinkable possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons is now on the rise.

According to estimates by the Federation of American Scientists, as of the beginning of 2022, nine countries had about 12,700 nuclear warheads.

Although Russia and the US have decommissioned thousands of decommissioned warheads, they still retain 90% of the world’s total (over 11,300). It is followed by China with 350, France with 290, Great Britain with 225, Pakistan with 165, India with 160, Israel with 90 and North Korea with 20. South Africa voluntarily decommissioned them in 1989.

Tactical nuclear weapons have not been part of strategic scenarios since the end of the Cold War in 1991. Many calculations about how Russia and the United States would respond to the use of nuclear weapons have their origins in the Cold War and the fragile balance of terror that kept the world safe — but also in fear, analysts say.

And if Putin can’t emerge from this war without something resembling a victory, they also say it increases the chances that Russia will invoke its status as a nuclear power.

• Nuclear deterrence continues in Ukraine. How long?

Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters