Her recent air strikes Russia against Ukrainianwhich were the most serious from the very beginning war, killed at least 19 people, forcing thousands more to hide in shelters. In addition, they have caused power outages in hundreds of cities and villages.

The attacks, which the West says were deliberately targeted at civilians, were seen by Moscow hawks as a “turning point” in the war, demonstrating Russia’s determination to launch what they call a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

But Western military analysts say the strikes have cost Moscow dearly, depleting its already limited supply of long-range missiles, failing to hit major military installations and are unlikely to change the course of a war that is not going well. for Moscow.

“Russia does not have missiles to attack frequently as it is running out of supplies, while the Ukrainians have made significant progress in intercepting those already in use,” said Lawrence Friedman, emeritus professor of military studies at King’s College London. .

“Therefore, this is not a new strategy aimed at winning the war, but a sociopath’s outburst of anger.”

Can Russia continue these attacks?

Ukraine says Russia launched 83 cruise missiles on Monday and that Kyiv forces shot down at least 43 of them.

For its part, Moscow claims to have launched more than 70 missiles and managed to hit all of its targets. Both sides say it was a massive attack, similar to the one that followed the first wave of Russian airstrikes on the first night of the war.

Each of the Kalibr cruise missiles is valued at more than $6.5 million, meaning yesterday’s attacks cost Moscow about half a billion.

Western military analysts don’t have specific figures on how many missiles remain in Russia’s arsenal, but, as they’ve been pointing out for months, there are indications that supplies are limited.

As Joseph Dempsey and Douglas Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies reported in July, Russia is increasingly using ship-attack missiles to hit targets on land. This “shows that Moscow is being forced to use its remaining ground-attack missiles more carefully,” they said.

Will Ukraine be able to defend itself?

Military analysts say that Ukraine may never be able to defend its entire territory from strikes against scattered, low-priority targets.

Air defense forces, such as the US Patriot missile system, are designed primarily to protect specific, high-priority targets. Others provide broader protection but over a relatively limited area, such as Israel’s Iron Dome, a system that protects about one-twentieth of Ukraine’s territory.

“The bottom line is, just as it was hard to stop Saddam from launching SCUD missiles, and as much as we want to help Ukraine, it’s hard to fully address all of Putin’s war crimes, which unfortunately include firing missiles at civilians,” he said. . Mark Hertling, the former commander of US ground forces in Europe, wrote about this on Twitter.

However, Monday’s attacks show that Ukraine is far from helpless to defend itself. While it is impossible to verify Kyiv’s claims that it shot down more than half of the Russian missiles, Russia did not hit any of the most strategically important targets, such as government buildings in Kyiv, which appear to be the best protected.

What’s next?

Even after Monday’s attacks, Russia is still facing the same strategic challenges, namely low morale and under-equipment of its troops, which are deployed on a 1,000-kilometer front and much of their supply chains are vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

Russia’s initial advantages, above all her powerful artillery, allowed her to destroy and take control of the cities in May and June. But since September, artillery forces have not been enough to protect the occupied territories from mobile and well-equipped Ukrainian units.

Moreover, Moscow still lacks control over Ukrainian airspace, which would allow it to carry out air and helicopter strikes of the kind that helped it defeat rebels in Syria and Chechnya.

Ben Hodges, another former commander of US ground forces in Europe, said that despite Monday’s attacks, Ukraine appears to have “irreversible momentum” on the battlefield.

“The Russian accounting system has run its course and no Russian wants to be involved in Putin’s war against Ukraine,” he tweeted.

^{Source: Reuters.}