Research – analysis: prof. Giannis Maniatis
In collaboration with PhD students: Tassos Vassiliou, Annas Kallitsaris, Evitas Potitakis

According to TotalEnergies (2000-2019), the annual growth rate of global GDP was 3.5% and total energy demand was 2.0%, with the share of fossil fuels being 81%. Electricity grew the fastest (3.2%) and oil grew the slowest (1.1%). Coal grows until 2015, then slows down. Natural gas and renewable energy sources are growing at a similar pace (2.6% and 2.5% respectively).

Demand and supply of natural gas

The total demand for gas in the European Union reaches 450 billion cubic meters, of which 280 billion cubic meters are pipeline imports, 90 for domestic production and the rest for LNG imports. LNG perpetual contracts amount to almost 35 bcm and flexible contracts to 40. The remaining 15 bcm are spot LNG supplies, which are expected to rise to 45 bcm in 2030. In 2030, the total potentially diverted volume of LNG is expected to be 80 bcm.

Electricity generation forecasts

In the 4th quarter of 2022, Europe’s electricity generation is projected to have a partial decline of 24 GW (natural gas, nuclear, hydro) and a partial increase of 12 GW (coal, wind, photovoltaic). The decrease in gas by 12% is due to the lack of necessary LNG cargoes. At the demand level, a 4% decrease in total electricity demand, as well as a 12% decrease in natural gas demand.

Energy balance of Germany

Today, Germany’s electricity generation mix is ​​1/4 coal, followed by natural gas and nuclear power. It is noted that most of the electricity production is covered by renewable energy sources. The forecast for 2030 shows an almost 60% participation of renewable energy sources, zero nuclear energy, a 2/3 reduction in coal and an increase in the share of natural gas.

Winter heats up demand

It is very difficult to cope with the approaching winter in northwestern Europe. During the first cold period of September, Europe’s demand for natural gas increased from 500 million m3/day (average for the previous 5 years) to 600 million m3/day.

LNG and the big problem

Imports of LNG cargoes and natural gas production in Norway are trying to offset the decline in Russian gas imports. A major challenge for French nuclear power plants is the significant increase in electricity generation required.