(Retired) US General Mark Gertling hailed the Ukrainians’ “brilliant” offensive in Kharkiv, but stressed that he also had concerns about the way forward: “Tempe, fatigue and black swans.”

The former US commander noted that there are some elements of the Ukrainian forces that cannot “keep up” with the fighters on the front lines, and that the troops that have fought so far are exhausted.

He also listed six “black swans” that could have “serious consequences.”

What Mark Gertling wrote on Twitter:

The Ukrainian military must have been as surprised as many others by the speed and success of the offensive on Kharkiv over the past five days. It is and continues to be brilliant. But as someone who has seen both success and failure in combat, I have a few concerns…

Like others, I am euphoric about Ukraine’s progress in Kharkiv and Kherson and their continued active defense in Donbas. Brilliant progress through solid maneuver planning, sophisticated, technologically advanced weaponry, the use of intelligence, leadership and morale.

Yes, it was a positive week of news from Ukraine. But there is still something to fight for.

Russian troops left dozens of villages in the Kharkiv region and moved to Belgorod (Russia) or Luhansk. The Russian command will probably try to protect the key logistics hub of Kupyansk on the Donetsk River.

In the south (north of Donetsk), Russian forces are likely strengthening their defenses and conducting artillery probes near Slovyansk, Spirny, Mykolaivka and other cities, believing that the AS may continue to advance once Russian servicemen and their families leave those locations.

There is not much attention paid to the Kherson region, but Ukraine continues offensive actions there. Remember that the Russian forces that have moved there are now fighting and suffering losses in a battle of attrition.

I still predict that in the future we will see Russian prisoners of war en masse.

So what am I worried about? Three things: pace, fatigue, black swans.

First, the temp

Pace is defined in US Army doctrine as “the speed and pace of military operations relative to the actions of the enemy.” Tempo doesn’t always mean fast.

Sometimes fast, sometimes slow… pace depends on capabilities and combat support. The commander determines the pace of action, based on the ability to retain the initiative for offensive actions.

Better put: “Don’t go too far, too fast, without thinking about everyone trying to keep up (artillery, intelligence, fuel, ammunition, supplies).”

Sometimes the commander will see an opportunity and want to force. But it is important to remember that supply, intelligence, artillery, air defense, engineers… all this determines the pace.

Two mentors taught me something about this:

• General Franks: “Know when to go fast and when to slow down.”
• General Dempsey: “Quick, but take your time!”

In fact, there is a part of the Ukrainian forces that cannot “keep up” with the fighters on the front line. This is not an insult, but an understanding of Ukrainian forces. progress – it is necessary to take into account the operational pace This is mandatory.

Fatigue: Ukrainian forces are broken at this stage

I don’t know if (football coach) Vince Lombardi, (General) Patton or Shakespeare said it, but it’s true: “Fatigue makes cowards of us all.” Offensive forces can attack for about 4-5 days without a harvest.

It’s not about equipment, it’s about people. My experience in combat, as well as at our military national training center where we study this, is that units will begin to fail if they are not rested on the 5th day of the attack. And commanders/leaders start making very bad decisions after 3 days of little or no sleep.

We wake up every day – after 5 days – looking at the reports of the Ukrainian offensive and saying: “I hope they go further, conquer more!” Ukrainian forces are currently exhausted.

Not only because of travel and lack of sleep, but also because of the emotions associated with the battle. I foresee some necessary “breaks”.

Finally, “black swans”.

“An unexpected event that goes beyond what is normally expected in a situation that can have serious consequences. Black swans are characterized by unpredictability, rarity, serious consequences, and a widespread insistence, in retrospect, that they were obvious.”

• What are the consequences of Putin targeting energy infrastructure in many Ukrainian cities?
• What are the consequences of damage to the Zaporozhye NPP?
• How will Ukraine cope with the capture of thousands of Russian prisoners of war?
• What is the situation with Ukraine’s economy, the labor market… and grain shipments?
• Will there be a coup in the Kremlin? Who could succeed Putin and what would that mean?
• Will Ukraine try to return Crimea?
• What happened to the citizens (and children) of Ukraine who were sent to camps and unknown places in Russia?
• And if Russia uses weapons of mass destruction?

These are all issues that have “serious implications” that need to be addressed, even though we all applaud Ukraine’s actions on the battlefield. Nevertheless, I am grateful for those in Ukraine who continue to fight for their sovereignty against illegal invasion… and for those who support them!

—————-

• Wednesday’s events regarding the war in Ukraine are broadcast LIVE on HotNews.ro